Industrial and manufacturing production slid further in October, by -0.3% and -0.5% respectively. They are also down respectively -1.2% and -1.8% from their late 2022 highs:

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It’s a good thing I suppose that manufacturing is no longer such an important part of the American economy, because as the below graph of the past 50 years shows, before 2001 and especially before the Great Recession, and decline YoY *always* coincided with or at least immediately heralded a recession:

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But since the accession of China to regular trading status, even downturns of about -5% or more, as in 2015-16 and 2018-19 have not necessarily meant recession.

And as this close-up of the post pandemic record show, on a YoY basis production is only down about -1%:

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 So, to reiterate what I wrote earlier this morning, it’s a good thing that consumption particularly of services continues to be positive.

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