Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
ADP surprised on the upside (143K vs 124K consensus):
Not sure what this means, but ADP is outstripping the official series, which is itself above the preliminary benchmark.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (light blue), ADP-Stanford (green), QCEW (red), change from 2023M01, in 000’s, s.a. QCEW seasonally adjusted using X-13 in logs. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 2: Private nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), preliminary benchmark (light blue), ADP-Stanford (green), QCEW (red), change from 2023M01, in logs. QCEW seasonally adjusted using X-13 in logs. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author’s calculations.
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