Peering Into The Future: Interview With Rick Neaton

Introduction

Rick Neaton has been investing and writing about technology for over twenty years. In 2008, Rick founded Rivershore Investment Research (RIR), a subscription-based technology newsletter, to share his work with others interested in technology and investing. RIR covers key technology trends, publicly traded technology companies, and numerous investing themes.

In RIR, Rick focuses on important trends in technology and on how these trends will generate winners and losers. By focusing on technology, product cycles, market cycles, and valuations, Rick identifies timely investment opportunities and helps readers avoid costly mistakes. Further, he touches on major political and economic events as they shape the world’s investing environment, helping readers navigate the natural and not-so-natural ups and downs in the financial markets.

Interview

Ilene: What is your outlook for the US economy and the global economy over the next 1 to 3 years?

Rick: I think the US economy will continue to grow at a below average annual real rate. That is around 2%.

The world economy will not act in unison. India appears to be capable of producing 7-8% annualized real GDP growth.

China’s problems appear more political than economic in that it is transitioning from being an industrial-based economy to being a services-based economy. People who have made lots of money in China’s old economy are fearful of political repercussions to their capital. They have responded by moving more and more of their assets offshore. That is creating tension between the central government plans and the needs of these individuals.

Thus the pressure in China appears to be more centered on the value of assets held there than on the actual growth in the economy. Remember that 6.5% growth in China’s economy is still far more in dollar terms than prior years in which the growth rate was 7%, 8% or 9% in terms of China’s GDP. Because of the problems in China, you don’t want to own Chinese assets like stocks and bonds. But you would want to own the offshore assets that Chinese buyers find attractive. These political issues in China explain the sudden surge in the Chinese corporate interest in acquiring western companies for cash.

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Disclosure: Long INTC.

For free samples of recent RIR newsletters, please visit Rick at RIR  more

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Comments

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Vincent Giordano 4 years ago Member's comment

Good interview, thanks for sharing.

Ilene Carrie 4 years ago Author's comment

Fun interview. Thanks, Rick.