Pairs In Focus - Sunday, March 9
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EUR/USD
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The euro has absolutely exploded to the upside over the course of the trading week, as it threatened the 1.09 level. The size of the candle appears to be rather unsettling, as interest rates in Germany have exploded to the upside while interest rates in the United States have fallen.
That being said, it seems that the pair has reached a significant barrier in the form of the 1.09 level. I anticipate that this market is likely to fall from here, but I don’t think that it is going to fall significantly, rather there may be some profit-taking during the week.
GBP/JPY
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The British pound initially rallied during the trading week against the Japanese yen, but it has since experienced a little bit of a pullback. The resulting candlestick looks like an inverted hammer formation, but I won't read too much into it, mainly because the currency pair is in the midst of a consolidation range.
The JPY190 level seems to be a bit of a magnet for price. With that being the case, I think the market will probably see some back-and-forth movement in short-term trading. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential favors Great Britain, so that is something to pay close attention to.
USD/CAD
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The US dollar fluctuated wildly against the Canadian dollar during the previous trading week, and I think that will continue to be the case in the coming days. After all, there has been a rise in discussion about whether or not tariffs are going to be levied, and, of course, how bad they are going to be.
Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that both countries released their jobs numbers on Friday, and both of these releases were lighter than anticipated. In other words, it looks like we could be getting a recession and North America, which, of course, would be very negative for Canada, as the economy is almost solely dependent on exporting goods to the United States.
AUD/USD
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The Australian dollar rallied throughout the week, but it is worth noting that it has still been stuck in the middle of its recent range. I find it interesting that despite the fact that so many other currencies have been skyrocketing against the US dollar, the Australian dollar looks lackluster. This might be something worth paying attention to. If you squint just a little bit, you could make an argument for a bit of a bearish flag having formed on the weekly chart, as well.
USD/CHF
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The US dollar was absolutely obliterated against the Swiss franc, as the currency pair experienced a massive change in attitude. By slicing through so many different support levels, the pair's price action seems to suggest that the US dollar may continue to struggle. Additionally, risk appetite may be affected.
Remember, the Swiss franc is considered to be a “safety currency,” and, as a result, a lot of people will turn to the Swiss franc to protect their wealth. The size of the candlestick also seems to suggest that rallies could be sold into.
DAX
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The German index witnessed another strong week, but it has recently been struggling with the area above the EUR23,000 mark. Because of this, I suspect that it is probably only a matter of time before it starts to see traders buying on the dip.
The market has a massive amount of support to be found at the EUR22,500 level, and most certainly at the EUR20,000 level. However, yields in Germany are starting to spike again, and that could attract some money away from the stock market and into the bond market. Regardless, the index appears to be in a strong uptrend, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 was pummeled again this week, and it now appears to be threatening the 50-week EMA. One should pay close attention to the idea of a recession in the United States, as this would obviously have a negative effect on the index.
In general, I think many people will be waiting for a much-anticipated bounce before getting involved with the market. The 20,000 level should be monitored in the coming days. If the index continues to fall from this area, I believe it could decline further to the 18,600 level below.
NZD/USD
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The New Zealand dollar was rather bullish during the course of the week, but it has remained in its recent range. It also gave up some of the gains at the end of the week, which is interesting to note, considering how weak the US dollar was throughout the trading period. That being said, the currency pair looks to be stuck between the 0.55 level at the bottom and the 0.58 level at the top.
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