Pairs In Focus - Sunday, Feb. 9
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Gold
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Gold markets looked to have been rather strong during the trading week, as the market continued to see the uptrend be confirmed. At this point, I see the $2800 level as a potential floor in the market. It should be noted that this area previously served as resistance.
However, I think that gold could end up reaching toward the $3000 level above. That being said, traders need to be cautious, as there are a lot of moving pieces out there right now that could influence gold.
EUR/USD
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The euro initially gapped lower at the open for the week, but it then spent the rest of the week recovering. In fact, it not only filled the gap, but it broke above there to challenge much higher levels. However, by the end of the week, the euro began to see selling pressure yet again, continuing the overall pro US dollar stance of the market.
Quite frankly, the European Union has a ton of issues to overcome ahead of it, and the Non-Farm Payroll announcement in the United States suggests that the Federal Reserve is going to have to stay tight for longer than most people thought. Because of these factors, I remain bearish.
GBP/USD
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The British pound initially gapped lower like the euro did, but it then turned around to show signs of strength. However, the Bank of England had interest rate decisions this week, and there were a couple of members that wanted to cut more than they actually settled on.
In other words, the British pound could continue to see a lot of headwinds. Combine that with the idea that the Federal Reserve might be on hold for the rest of the year, and you have a lot of downward pressure to contend with.
AUD/USD
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The Australian dollar was mostly bullish for the week, in contrast with several other major currencies. I still see the 0.6350 level as a major resistance barrier. As long as it remains below that level, I prefer to short the Australian dollar on short-term rallies. If it could break above there, then I would have to reassess the entire situation.
BTC/USD
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Bitcoin moved all over the place during the week, before essentially settling on a relatively neutral candlestick. At this point in time, I think the cryptocurrency will continue to see sideways action more than anything else. I have been adding little bits and pieces along the way, every time it drops a bit.
The $90,000 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be paying attention to for massive support. On the other hand, the $110,000 level is a massive barrier, so if it was able to somehow break above there, I think Bitcoin would really start to take off. At this point, however, I expect to see more neutral momentum.
DAX
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The German index DAX initially fell during the trading week, but it then turned around to show signs of strength yet again. It looks like the EUR21,000 level will continue to be a major floor in the market, and therefore traders need to pay close attention to it.
Alternatively, the EUR22,000 level seems to be a major barrier, so if the index can break above there, I think a rally could occur. As things stand right now, I like the idea of buying short-term pullbacks in order to find value.
Nasdaq 100
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The Nasdaq 100 formed a very neutral candlestick, as the market bounced all over the place during the past week. It’s probably worth noting that the Nasdaq 100 looks a lot like Bitcoin at the moment.
All things being equal, I do believe that the Nasdaq 100 will eventually break out to the upside, but I think traders could also look at short-term dips as potential short-term buying opportunities. I believe that there is plenty of support at the 21,000 level, right along with the 20,000 level where the 50-week EMA approaches. If it can break above the 22,000 level, then such a move could kick-start the next leg higher.
USD/CAD
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The US dollar initially gapped higher against the Canadian dollar, as tariffs were announced over the weekend. However, as the United States and Canada are seemingly getting fairly close to a longer-term agreement, we have seen the Loonie pick up a little bit of strength.
Nonetheless, there is still a major difference between these two economies, and more importantly, where the central banks are heading. This is a pretty ugly candlestick, but I think there is plenty of support between here and the 1.42 level that I would be a buyer of if it can get some type of bounce.
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