FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan from CEA), who argued for 50 bps decline.

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 9/17/2025.

I put in a question mark, but really, there’s no doubt who is at the low end for the appropriate policy rate.

This is despite the fact that Miran believes (in line with the Troika forecast) in much faster growth:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 9/17/2025.

The top end (one observation in 2026, 202y7) growth rates are slightly below the y/y growth rates listed in the Troika forecast. So, once again, Miran/Administration are out-of-step, forecast-wise.

Overall, you can see Miran’s position:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Federal Reserve Board, 9/17/2025.

In general, Miran holds pretty funny views relative to others — with GDP growth much faster and inflation lower. I guess he’s still holding out for that supply-side miracle.

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