Nowcast from Atlanta Fed plus tracking from GS out today.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 2: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), GDPNow for Q4 (red square), Goldman Sachs (sky blue triangle), IHS Markit (inverted pink triangle), Bloomberg consensus as of 1/10 (orange line), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR. GDP+ level calculated by iterating on 2019Q4 GDP (when GDP and GDO matched). Source: BEA (Q4 3rd release), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (12/22), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1/10), Goldman Sachs (1/10), IHS Markit (1/6), Bloomberg, and author’s calculations. 

GDPNow is substantially higher (4.1%) vs Bloomberg consensus (2.4%), as well as recent readings from Goldman Sachs and IHS Markit.

IHS Markit/S&P Global view as of 1/6 [not online]:

Despite solid headline growth in the fourth quarter, according to our estimate, the narrative of our near-term outlook for the US is still one of mild recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023, with a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 0.6%.

Mark Zandi(Moody’s) and Heather Boushey (CEA) have indicated that a “soft-landing” is possible, while Jan Hatzius has in the past indicated a likely soft landing, which he interpreted as more likely given the employment situation release for December.

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