Each year, the establishment series is benchmark-revised. The preliminary estimate for March was released yesterday. Short story – employment growth looks faster and stronger – up 462K relative to original 150856K (up by 0.3%).

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment as reported (bold black), Bloomberg consensus for August (pink triangle), CES preliminary benchmark revision for March (red square), implied revision (teal), in 000’s s.a., on log scale). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The benchmarking process is described somewhat in this post. The previous year (from April 2021 to March 2022) will have the divergence “wedged in” so as to match in March 2022.

Private nonfarm payroll was revised up by 0.4%, big revisions up to transportation & warehousing (+2.3%) and information (+2.2%), while big negative downward revisions were made to mining & logging (-3.6%) and retail (-2.1%).

How does the aggregate NFP series change the picture?

Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment as reported (bold black), Bloomberg consensus for August (pink triangle), implied revision (teal), civilian employment adjusted to conform to NFP concept (chartreuse), in 000’s s.a., on log scale). Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The benchmark revision further buttresses the view that no slowdown occurred in labor markets during H1, and further erodes the argument for a recession — defined as a broad, sustained, reduction in economic activity — occurred during the first half of the year.

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