Private nonfarm payroll employment surprises on the upside (big time): 223K vs 125K consensus (total NFP 254K vs. 147K consensus). Moreover, the previous two months’ data were revised a total of 46K. Here’s a graph of reported September and August release numbers, vs. Bloomberg consensus and my nowcast (reported yesterday).

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: Private NFP, September release (bold blue), August release (black), nowcast based on ADP (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The implied level of September employment was well within the 68% (plus/minus 1 std error) band for the nowcast based on the ADP series. Note the mean revision (mean absolute revision) going from 1st to 3rd release is -30 (50) in 2023.

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