Nowcasting Private NFP Using ADP Data
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My guess for private NFP:
Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.
The nowcast is based on this regression:
For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).
Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).
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