Nowcasting Private NFP Using ADP Data

Person Holding Blue and Clear Ballpoint Pen

Image Source: Pexels

My guess for private NFP:

Figure 1: Private NFP (bold black), nowcast (blue), +/- 1 std error band (gray), Bloomberg consensus (red +). Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

The nowcast is +176K, vs +125K Bloomberg consensus.

The nowcast is based on this regression:

For comparison, GS provides some big data nowcasts for total NFP (GS adds 20K to ADP to scale up to total NFP).

Goldman Sachs estimate of total NFP is at +165K. One can take 20K off to get implied private NFP (Bloomberg consensus has 23K difference).


More By This Author:

Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment Measures Compared
Business Cycle Indicators – August Monthly GDP
Manufacturing In Recession? (Revisited)
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Or Sign in with