News Beyond GSK R&D

Gold is flat on its back again, with no rise since the start of the year at $1115/oz. Oil meanwhile has gushed in price to $48.18/bbl, up nearly 4.5% just in time for a colder weather.

And Pres. Xi Jinping of China now expects that it can meet its 5-yr plan goals by growing only 6.5% which will still achieve Gross National Production in 2020 double that of 2010.

Having spent the morning learning about a major R&D plans at one of my long-term drug stock favorites, I summarized only the big macro news before setting to work writing up the drug stock later. It is British GlaxoSmithKline.

Meanwhile we have news from Britain, India, Israel, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Jordan, Brazil, and South Korea, mostly about drug companies.

Cars, Aggregates, Fuel

*Our Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) boosted US Oct. light vehicle sales by 15% y/y to 196,000. Best-seller was Jeep, a light vehicle. FCAU beat the overall rise for US light vehicles which was only 13.6%. However in pickup trucks, FCAU sales were up only 3% vs 10% at GM and 3.3% at market leader Ford. FCAU is controlled by an Italian family, the descendents of the Agnellis, but incorporated in Luxembourg,

*UK Investors Intelligence on Tuesday rated CRH of Ireland as its best bull pick after it found support, but the share fell modestly on Tuesday in US markets. We trade with II.

*We may have sold Tata Motors (TTM) too soon. Its share was rated outperformed on Tuesday by Sanford Bernstein with a $34.50 target price. TTM was a victim of China's crackdown on corruption which hit its sales of Jaguars.

*Brazilian Cosan (CZZ) juggled its subs' heads which mysteriously boosted its stock price. All the newbies were promoted internally at Raizen and Comgas. CZZ is up 3.3% on this news.

*With oil prices rising, Schlumberger (SLB) is in a bull phase, as the healthiest stock in the oil patch.

Drugs

*GlaxoSmithKline (GSKrefused a takeover bid from Pfizer after a smaller UK drug firm Astra-Zeneca did so too. So Allergan is only a 3rd choice for PFE. However, unlike a UK takeover, an Irish one provide a tax inversion advantage—and political risk. Source: The Financial Times. Nobody at the GSK R&D confab starting with CEO Sir Andrew Witty on Tuesday confirmed that an offer has been made and rejected. PFE tried to buy both AZN and GSK for shares rather than cash, the UK pink newspaper said, one reason it got nowhere. Witty probably wanted to show what he could do before accepting a bid for GSK which has a market value of about £68 bn (roughly $105 bn now, but possibly some other amount when the bid was discussed, if it was).

*GSK will work with Merck to start phase I clinical trials of its GSK3174998 alone or combined with MRK's Keytrudea (a humanized monoclonal antibody which blocks interaction between PD-1 and its ligands, PD-L1 and 2. It will be tested in patients with locally advanced, recurrent, metastatic solid tumors that have grown after standard treatment, both alone and with Keytruda.

GSK3174998 is a humanized IgG1 anti OX40 monoclonal antibody discovered working with MD Anderson Cancer center, a tumor necrosis factor receptor found on the surface of two activated T-Cells. OX4

​0​ ago​n​is​t​ stimulated the immune system while reducing the immuno-suppressive effects of regulatory T-cells sometimes triggered by tumors.

*GSK will work with Regulus Therapeutics of California to develop drugs targeting microRNA through to phase II trials using RGLS RG-101. Milestones and payments were not released. The product is a patented GalNAc-conjugated anti-miR targetting miR-122. The trial will combine GSK2878175 (a non-nucleoside Ns5B polymerase inhibitor) with RG101 to treat hepatitis C. Another injectible version will be used in additional clinical trials.

*ViiV announced that its phase IIb Latte trials of cabotegravir (an integrase strand transfer inhibitor) with Janssen's rilprivine in oral use to maintain viral suppression rates worked as well as a 3-drug regimen of the ViiV drug and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Cabotegravir is a once/day oral drug. The two firms worked together to do the trials. ViiV is a sub of GSK, Pfizer, and Shionogi Ltd working on AIDS drugs; Janssen is a sub of Johnson & Johnson. The key takeaway is that viral suppression in the cabotegravir arm continued after patients were given the drug only every 4 weeks, or every 8 weeks. This promises a less hectic schedule for AIDS patients that taking lots of pills every day.

*Teva's (TEVA) use of proprietary pharmacies is different from the scandalous way Valeant worked. To boost compliance and understanding of its treatment for multiple sclerosis, the Israeli firm sends patients their first dose with coupons and lots of information to help them benefit from and understand Copaxone. It is not a racket. TEVA is up 2.53% on the news.

*Fellow Israeli Compugen (CGEN) reported very poor Q3 results, with revenues down 88% to $229,000 (well below consensus forecasts. There were higher operating expenses, despite reductions in costs of goods sold and operating losses. The main cause was the build up of its California arm and the one-off payment last year by Bayer AG for a cancer immunology MAb from CGEN, 15029 which boosted its Q3 in 2014. Net loss came to $6.74 mn or 13 cents/sh vs prior year loss of $5.4 mn or 11 cents/sh, beating the consensus forecast that the loss would be 15 cents. CEO Dr Anat Cohen-Dayag gave no forward guidance.

*Novartis (NVS) won US FDA approval for its Utibon Neohaler to deliver maintenance doses of 2 broncodilator drugs (indacatisol and bycpyrrolene) for sufferers from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

*Zacks downrated Alkermes (ALKSfrom hold to sell which hit the Irish drug firm's price. ALKS.

*Reckitt Benckiser's (RBGLY) target price has been raised to GBX 6170 by its rating to buy byGoldman Sachs.

*Investors Intelligence rated Hikma Pharma (HKMPFas a bear on trends on Tuesday. We sold on the price gapping up on takeover rumors. While traded in London, Hikma is Jordanian and sells drugs to Middle East and North African markets.

Funds

*Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings (PSHZF), a London-listed closed-end-fund traded incorporated in Amsterdam, lost 19% in the year to Oct. 31 because of its Valeant stake. It lost 7.3% in Oct. VRX recovered a bit in Nov. as Citron shorts failed to riposte to Ackman's defense Friday. Another PSH loser is Platform Specialty Products which had a boardroom clash.

*Korea Fund will buy back up to 10% of its outstanding shares to next June 30.

*Pimco Dynamic Income Fund (PDIdeclared a 22.05¢ monthly dividend for Dec., down 0.01% from the prior level of 22.1¢. PDI.

Disclosure: None.

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