Never let a panic go unexploited.

The omens are terrible. It is March, the month of the God of War.

It is just 100 years since the outbreak of The Great War, the slaughterhouse of World War I, which began with failure to realize that mobilizations and ultimatums have consequences. We are hearing lots of call-ups and threates.

There already was a stupid Crimean War between Russia and some European countries (for details, read "The Charge of the Light Brigade"; and recall that more soldiers died of infection than from their wounds until Florence Nightingale organized nurses.)

In fact, the very omens probably mean it ain't gonna happen.

To quote Karl Marx, "history repeats, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce." Even since the Georgia carve-up of 2008, Russia has become more integrated into the world economic system. That means western powers have are mechanisms to hurt an aggressive Russia which were not available during the George W. Bush presidency. Then Russia was able to quickly defeat the government of Mikhail Saakashvili which called up its troops.

Like Georgia, Ukraine, which moreover has an unelected government, is reacting with call-ups to try for a military response. Like Georgia, Ukraine is hopelessly outclassed militarily. Like Georgia, Ukraine will probably break up into ethnic enclaves.

This time, Vladimir Putin may win the battle, but lose the war. The valid threat of economic sanctions by the US and NATO countries hit the ruble today, and the Russian Central Bank intervened to stop the fall. It raised ruble interest rates from 5.5% to 7% as both the dollar and the euro hit historic highs against the Russian currency.

Meanwhile stocks around the world are down. Gold and the dollar are up. This creates opportunities and risks for the global investing community discussed below, along with trading alerts.

*Your editor bailed out of Central European, Russian, and Turkish Fund, CEE, this morning at $25.90. It is currently $26.43 so I missed a few pennies. Volume is 250% of normal full-day trading.

*So far I am not yet invested in Western Assets Emerging Markets Debt Fund, ESD, where I think the money should move. ESD, run by Legg, Mason Global Asset Mgm, invests worldwide. It lost 8.6% in NAV and 14.9% in market price in 2013 (unusually, this CEF uses the calendar year.) ESD us 57% invested in sovereign (government) bonds: by country at year-end in Russia (9%); Venezuela (8.6%); Turkey (7.4%); Mexico (5.7%); Brazil (5.6%); Indonesia (4.7%), Colombia (3.8%) plus small holdings in other emerging countries including Ukraine (0.3%.)

Of course these numbers are not what it is holding now. As the report says, "the compositions of the fund's investments is subject to change at any time." Unlike CEE it can invest all over the world, not waiting out the crisis in Black Sea countries.

ESD did well with Mexico and badly with Brazil and suffered for failing to match the index it tracks, the EMBI Global, because it had zero positions in Ecuador, Belize, Nigeria, and Angola "due to concerns over valuation and liquidity" to quote the managers.

The other 42% (there is a bit of cash) is invested in corporates: energy, materials, telcos, utes, industrials, consumer staples, discretionary, and so little it comes up as 0% in the tables in financials. It closed the year with notes and bonds issued by Russia energy and oil firms but mostly paper from Pemex, Pertamina, Petronas, Ecopetrol, and Pacific Rubiales (another Colombia driller). Its Turkish staples holdings included local bottler Coca Cola Icacek and its industrials include Mersin Uluslararasi. It owned Russian telco VimpelCom. It had positions in Latin America utes and telcos.

The main reason for making the switch is to de-regionalize our position.

The main reason for hitting the emerging markets income button is that 2013 has been a disaster for these assets because of the impact of the taper. The emerging debt asset class is greatly underowned. With its holdings of energy and hard commodity companies and countries, ESD should gain this year.

*Let us start with Canada. The loonie fell about 3% against the greenback today. In fact, it should rise: Canada is a leading producer of gold and hydrocarbons. It should help us excise the Russian influence over the price of Euroland gas shipped via Ukraine, the classic Russkiy ploy when it wants to hurt Kiev. Some companies reversed the impact of the forex move but not the right ones, discuss below.

*Apart from CEE, other Russian holdings are also down double-digits: Raven Rus at GB pence 75; Yandex at $32; Coca Cola Hellenic at $24. They are all also suffering from  ruble trouble. RUS:GB specializes in commercial and warehouse real estate in Russia; YNDX runs (from the Netherlands) is a leading Russian and Ukrainian search engine; and CCH bottles coke in both Russia and Ukraine, but not Turkey.

*But don't only look at them: other portfolio shares down by at least 2.5% include: Teva, Cosan, A2A, Anton Oilfield Services, Canadian Solar, Nokia Oy; Marine Harvest; Portugal Telecom; Tencent; Paddy Power plc; Vale; and Banco Santander. Now just for the record, what is the similarity between an Israeli drug firm; a Brazilian ethanol producer; an Italian ute; a Hong Kong oilfield services firm; a Canadian producer of solar power plants; a Finnish maker of telephone equipment and handsets; the world's leading operator of salmon farms; a Portugal-Brazilian telco; a Chinese chat firm; an Irish internet bookie; a Brazilian iron ore miner; and a Spanish bank? The answer, forgive my Russian, is nichevo. Some of the moves are the result of contagion based on sectors. If you sell YNDX you may also sell TCTZF, for example.

That is what's called a blind risk-off trade in my book.

*Meanwhile gold and gold mines are rising. I may cash in my placement in physical gold withwww.bullionvault.com, our advertiser. I hold gold as a balance when crises lead to a boost in the "haven" currencies, like the dollar which hurts our portfolio overall, but which is followed by haven assets like the yellow metal. If anyone still believes in Bitcoins they would go up too. Our hedges on the dollar, UUP and DLR:Toronto are up.

*Naspers, the South Africa-based owner of a chunk of mail.ru, is down only 2.4% thanks to the country's gold resources. I don't want to downplay NPSNY but it is a global media firm with a troubled homeland. It owns 30% of Tencent. It is up mainly because an article in www.seekingalpha.com said NPSNY can rise 50%, but in my opinion and that of the guy who first recommended this stock failed to make any new points as to why it should go up.

*Some opportunities lie in competition the the Russian energy powerhouse with other fuels and more exploration. That means not only is the sale of ATONY, CZZ and CSIQ panicky; it is also stupid. Raw material firms should all be boosted by the threat of boycotts and belligerence..

*The market upped CAE (a Canada maker of airplane pilot training systems) thinking we are going to war. We're not.

*It boosted another Canadian, uranium miner Cameco thinking we are going to make nuclear warheads. We're not.

*It raised Computer Modelling thinking we would be drilling more for alternative oil. If we do that, surely we will also need ATONY and Schlumberger? SLB is holding up better after it was tipped in Barron's On-line last week, but chicken little should note that it is Dutch just like Yandex.

*Global Logistics Properties in Singapore signed a partnership with Bank of China which will provide supply chain finance to companies which use GBTZF Chinese warehouses and logistics centers aiming to lower cost of factoring. Last month BoC invested $2.5 bn in GBTZF alongside other Chinese state-owned enterprises.

*Royal Bank of Scotland is pondering merging its troubled Ulster Bank after it failed to find a buyer or figure out how to stop the hemorrhage according toThe Sunday Times (London) yesterday.

*As reported last week, Galapagos lost on two of the three trials for its JAK-3 inhibitor from Glaxo Smith Kline, one for lupus cancelled and one for ulcerative colitis delayed. This hurts the Belgian drug discovery shop which now employs our former Italy-based biotech maven. GSK will continue its phase II trials of GLPYY's drug in rheumatoid arthritis, still a biggie.

*Teva's 3x/week reformulated Copaxone may have problems getting insurers to reimburse the multiple sclerosis drug, writes fiercepharma.com today. That may explain Teva's falling but that happened before the pharmaceuticals publication came out.