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With latest available data:
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Figure 1: Misery Index, calculated as simple sum of unemployment rate and 12 month CPI inflation rate. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that Misery was 9.7% in 2020M08, exactly 4 previous to August 2024 reading.
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