Michigan Survey Implies A Catastrophic Collapse Of Fed Inflation Credibility
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NY Fed survey doesn’t.
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Figure 1: Bordo-Siklos measure of central bank credibility, using 5 year Michigan expectations (blue). Assumes 2.45% CPI inflation is consistent with 2% PCE deflator inflation. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Light orange denotes Trump administration. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
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