Markets: Election Day

Vote often, vote early, for Mayor Jim Curley. I voted in person and it didn't take longer than in prior election days and certainly was quicker than the last presidential election when candidate Donald Trump arrived and all the rest of us had to wait until he and Melania had voted. Then I had to sort out my bank on-line access which took over an hour as the technology available at the nearest branch could not be activated. Happy banking to all.

Today we have a company report that they hoped would not be noticed and lots of news. The stock market is back in bull mode with only a tiny number of what Mr. Trump would call losers, only one of which is not a US stock. Here we go on this.

Food

*Canadian Nutrien reported a Q3 net loss of US$587 mn (it reports in US bucks) or $1.03/sh caused by a write-down of $823 mn in its phosphate fertilizer business. Tillion thanks mainly to a US$823-million writedown in the value of its phosphate fertilizer operations. In the prior Q3, it earned $141 mn or 24 cents/sh. It was hit by US countervailing duty investigations which cut its sales bigly, to quote the guy responsible. Global phosphate is oversupplied according to NTR so phosphate prices may remain weak for the long term despite new demand from India and Brazil farmers. Adjusted phosphate earnings crashed 19% because of lower realized selling prices, despite lower costs per tonne. Sales from the Saskatoon company in the last quarter were up fractionally at $4.2 bn from $4.17 a year earlier.

The good news, such as it is, was that Nutrien booked $1 bn of digital sales according to CEP Chuck Magro's statement. He added; "Market conditions are improving around the world with higher crop and fertilizer prices, lower expected inventories and strong demand for crop inputs as we finish the year and enter 2021." He also cut guidance to $1.6 to $1.85 for the year's adjusted profit, narrower than the earlier forecast of $1.5-1.9, but also lowering the best hopes. For next year CEO Magro expects “improving markets around the world with higher crop and fertilizer prices, lower expected inventories, and strong demand.”

NTR stock fell 7.26% to $38.57 on the news. ¢It is now up 3¢ from there.

*Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard rose 5.4% as switching occurred. ANCUF runs highway food stores worldwide.

Financials

*Banco Santander of Spain reported profits in its Q3 which beat forecasts last week and its stock rose another 4.08% today as analysts caught up with the news. At $2.17/sh, SAN is up 13% since it reported.

*AIA Group Ltd of Hong Kong, AAIGF, rose 10% in the wake of Beijing's suspension of the Ant ipo. Its position will become stronger if the internet financial group is ordered to reduce its offerings. It was planning to raise $34.5 bn with an ipo in Shanghai and Hong Kong but its top officers were summoned to be interviewed by regulators, including its largest shareholder, Jack Ma, over “significant issues” and meeting “disclosure requirements”. Ant collects money for online sales and lends it out to financial subs including insurance companies. AAIGF fell back here and is only up 6.6%.

*Also up is HangSeng Bank by 3% in Hong Kong.

*CBOE, the options platform in Chicago, is up 2.9%.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno, which owns shopping malls, gained 3.81% today on good growth data from south of the border and a stronger peso. FBASF has been cutting down on housing and factories.

*Swedish Investor a/b is up 3.6% either from hopes for the currency or for its huge stake in Nasdaq.

*Mitsubishi Finance, MSBHF is up 4.26% and Sumitomo Mitsui Finance, SMFG, is up 2.8%.

Tech & Tel

*Lower also despite their $5 bn buy-back plans are Naspers and Prosus. The ceiling on buybacks will expire next March and if shares of NPSNY and PROSY, of South Africa and The Netherlands respectively continue to be greatly below net asset value, there may be another buyback.

*Their spun-off Africa cellphone sub MultiChoice, MCHOY, gained 3.6%. It is not going to directly gain from the buy-back which will mainly be to cut the Tencent stake.

*Mercado Libre of Argentina, the Amazon of the Amazon, opened up 2.4%. Its outperform rating was maintained by Crédit Suisse today. It then lost half its gain.

*Ericsson of Sweden rose 2.35% today.

*Even Finnish Nokia NOK is up 4.6% to $3.44. Even Vodafone VOD has gained a dime.

*BCE of Canada is up 1%. The loonie is up because of fear to Trump stomping on the poll results.

Energy

*Both Shell RDS-A and BP BP rose again today by ~2.5%, for no reason except that they are preparing for peak oil when US majors are not. However, Schlumberger Ltd, SLB, is down 0.005%.

*Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio NIO was tipped by Deutsche Bank today as a buy, with a target price of $34. It rose 5.8%+ to $35.52 in a heavy day, a new high. Also up is Tesla TSLA, but only 5.3%. We reported its high sales in October yesterday. Deutsche Bank was too conservative.

*Cameco was rated outperform by Raymond James yesterday and is up 2.3% today. It reports tomorrow.

*Japanese robot-maker Fanuc is up over 2$. FANUY.

Drugs

*Teva TEVA gained in the wake of CEO Käre Schultz buying 392,314 shares of the Israeli drug-maker's ADRs, in addition to shares he gets for running the company.

*Fellow Israeli BiolineRX, BLRX, rose an amazing 38.43% to $3.03 today. This is overdone of course but you never know when the market will get smart.

*Compugen, the prior high-flyer from Tel Aviv is only up 0.94% today to $12.85.

*Glaxo rose in Britain today on the news that it will meet new environmental sustainability targets by 2030, mostly by trading credits with polluters. GSK.

*My worst performing stock today is from this sector, Esperion, which ran up costs for going to market with its bempeoic acid cholesterol drug Aforvastin from R&D, SG&A, and stock handouts to brass, mostly the latter. It now has only $265 mn on hand and we hope it will stick to non-equity-dilutive ways to get more money so its officers will not suffer too much, which also means shareholders will do okay eventually. ESPR is down over 15% which is a lot.

*Japan's Eisai, ESALY. gained 1% today to $79.32.

*Canada's Zymeworks is up 1.15%, mainly from the loony. ZYME.

*Astra Zeneca AZN is up over 2% on vaccine hopes for coronavirus.

Utes

*Veolia Environnement gained another 3.6% today. My advice is to stick with it as it maneuvers the legal pitfalls in France while, I hope, protecting its dams and waterworks from enraged Muslims. By noon it fell so only gained 2.8%.

*Nudged by Harry Geisel, I have bought into UK-based Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure plc, listed on Q as AY. It rose 4% since I bought at the opening yesterday but still yields 5.55%. It is a partner of our Algonquin Power & Ute, AQN, whose payout is only 4%. AQN reports Nov. 10.

War

*BAE Systems sold a $9 mn complex vertical lift system to the US Army which will enable pilots to control lots of autonomous drones from the cockpit while flying. This boosted the UK share, BAESY, by 4.5% so it must be an important deal, but note that the stock has done many US deals lately.

Yellow Metal

*Antofagasta of Chile is up another 2.27% in its primary market, London. ANFGF.

*Spider Gold Fund, GLD, is up 0.61%.

*Canadian gold miner, despite a negative article in seeking alpha about Kirkland Lake running out of cheap finds Down Under, is up 1.53% today. KL.

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Texan Hunter 3 years ago Member's comment

Won't the stock market take a dive if Biden wins?