Overly optimistic Bulls likely will pay a heavy price for overstaying a central-bank-facilitated S&P advance that has been languishing for a few months. As they atone for their greed and effort to stabilize prices, it is conceivable they defer the 'trap door' opening under prices briefly; but probably not very long indeed.
 

Recent behavior was led almost solely by post-Debate short-covering on Monday; and even that was primarily Oil-led and Apple-led (in the wake of the Samsung Note 8 calamity). The overall advance wasn't as broad as many pretended, nor was the volume affirmative of the rise. I thought it would falter in the first hour Monday and it did. Tuesday only got a brief reprieve late in the session, and during the day we warned even a normal rebound was going to falter because of how Oil reacted (and the S&P) minimally to Iran 'going-along' with the Saudi/Russian presumed accord on oil production.

That last point affirmed (in theory; nobody knows if there's really a big 'quid pro quo' out there yet) my theory that the story is meaningful 'if' it finds the Iranians playing along. So far they stated in Istanbul that they are; so that implies we might be right about the rest of this. It matters a lot; both geopolitically and as to sustaining a decent Oil price floor. 

In sum: we got the break in the market we were looking for after false start upside moves for the week. Now, so far nothing firm coming from the Russians to confirm or deny (nor will there likely be other than a 'surprise' resumption of calming talks with a recalcitrant United States on the Syrian war perhaps forthcoming) my 'quid pro quo' idea shared last night; however just the Iranians suggesting cooperation, leans very much in the direction I addressed yesterday.

The pertinent aspect intraday was a failure of Oil to rally 'much' as that Iran story hit; so our intraday comments honed-in on that as suggesting nothing but a dead-cat relief preceding renewed (and heavy) pressures on the 'list'. We got both and stayed short through the intraday waves.

Bottom line: if we don't get a requisite (somewhat of an old wife's tale but old wives are often quite wise) post-semi-holiday kick-start rebound on Thursday, you know there's a grander issue than another break that comes back beyond a snap-back.

Because of the timing of the Yom Kippur holiday, and the prospect of a low volume session Wednesday, it could all be 'within' the context (or a range) seen on Tuesday, and thus somewhat irresolute. That would set up Thursday as the day to watch for rally attempts of more significance that they might sell into. And I suspect they'll be looking to sell rallies in addition for other reasons; such as the continue credit market behavior and as they take note of the yield/equity correlation aspects.