Market Briefing For Wednesday, Oct. 26

'3 steps and a stumble' - might be a reasonable way to describe a stair-step advance of the last couple weeks, 'if' the move soon runs out of gas and has a retreat. Some of that will depend on geopolitical situations, as the Ukraine war and whether Putin's ability to get out of the corner he painted himself into results in some sort of cobbled-out negotiated peace, versus threats heard. 

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There is discussion about 'short-range' versus more capable 'air defense' for Ukraine, and too many are talking of bringing this to a 'tie' between the parties at war. Clearly civilized people should want it to end, not reward an aggressor. At the same time, while we know the consequences of an expansion (nuclear for instance), not enough focus is made on the implications of a ceasefire, as it would likely contribute more to breaking the back of inflation as we'd noted. 

For now we're pleased with market action, note stocks like AEHR gradually firming (this report sent before the CEO talks in Los Angeles, I'll check later), and we're looking forward to Rockley (RKLY) surviving (got more funding) and same for Canoo (GOEV) among others. I'll update a bit more later in the week, and thanks to the market for remaining stable as hoped for during my first break in years.

Dow is on pace for best month since 2020, and we're delighted to recognize exhausted bottoming-style behavior of many stocks especially in September. Microsoft, Meta (Facebook) and Apple results are coming later, and all have been under selling pressure as expected for months. If they give guidance of a modestly restrained way and shares drop, they may not stay down for long, as much of the frustration and reduced expectations should be priced-in.

 


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