E Market Briefing For Wednesday, May 26

Foretelling a disaster isn't an easy task. Perhaps I'm honored to have done that a few times over the years; the post-real estate slippage 'Epic Debacle' in 1997-'98 was definitely the big 'call' until a pandemic 'crash alert' early in 2020 and perhaps more significantly the ensuing March 23rd 'bottom call' last year.

Woman, Mysterious, Field, Road, Meadow


But premonitions of gloom among analysts and economists this year focus for the most part on 'monetary policies', a resurgence of COVID (especially in Asia as likely threatens holding the Olympics at all), and not on domestic division it seems (which believe it or not seems to be calming except for how the media keeps pounding on topics which are historical now, so not widely focused on).

These topics indeed are in my thoughts as well, especially longer-running Fed policies, but realizing the Fed's not going to do much but chatter until volatility in prices actually becomes stable (or beyond if indeed inflation is transitory). If so we may get some 'tapering talk' signaled from the Fed, but avoiding actual policy change. They will not say the 'job is done' yet.

Now, if I had to single out one factor that can foretell trouble, it's hinted at by a collapse in Bitcoin and other crypto's, but not because of Bitcoin (BITCOMP). It's because of what the majority of players (in Asia not America) use to engage in trading it, and that's 'leverage'. So sure, that contributed to the plunge we projected in a series of concerned and negative comments on Bitcoin (even with rebounds as I wouldn't want to be called a 'permabear' on anything), rather specifically a call for 36,000-38,000 to be seen (got it). The point though is 'leverage'.

Executive summary:

  • Although factors like the DC AG taking a shot at Amazon (AMZN) conjure-up lots of antitrust memories, if not concerns, that's not a big deal today.
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