The 'tone' of the market - remains about the same Tuesday. 'Ranging' S&P', defensive action, psychology dependent on Nvidia tomorrow, but otherwise it's muted. 

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Around the edges things are fraying a bit, but generally that tone is one that remains balanced 'toward' maintaining risk allowing for more upside.

Of course even as the market 'acts like' it wants to have a go at more upside, in the wake of what many believe will be superlative data for Nvidia (but isn't that already discounted by preceding upside?), there can be a thrust which in hindsight appears as a 'sell the news' event, but again hard to say. Plus we're going into a holiday weekend, which often precedes seasonal June strength.

There's not a lot of movement coming resulting from the Fed's shifts...even a normally hawkish Gov. Waller chimed-in today with suspicion of 'nothing' now. There's no sense discussing the Fed more for now, as nothing has changed.

So with the Fed views articulated repeatedly, you don't have a 'wall of worry' scenario, you have lots of short-sellers in mega-caps already run-in, and that means investors are positioned but actually need 'good news' from holdings, in order to justify continued resilience. And that's where Nvidia (NVDA) contributes to, or degrades the mood out there, as soon as late Wednesday.

Market X-ray: 

while you definitely don't have a major bearish backdrop, you also don't have 'euphoria' dominating market mentality, just nervous optimism. And I suspect there's a broader viewpoint that (at the moment) Trump clearly dominates the polls, so there's that. And the reaction of people when 'WOKE' demonstrators show up in Chicago (at the DNC Convention), but as I'd noted it probably doesn't matter to the market (other than brief reactions) who wins. I am still thinking something big changes between now and then.

I did hear Eisman talk about backdrops of Professors in major colleges, that in his view are generally not teaching, but indoctrinating...sort of opposite what had occurred a generation ago when conservatives tried making inroads, but in this case these are not true liberals, but illiberal (radical?) propagandists in some cases knowingly or innocently acting as agents of foreign entities. This is not just an American problem, the U.K., France and Germany feel it, as the tendency to help the unfortunate (such as Sweden did) partially backfired.

Market breakdowns are very rare in late May, as far as seasonal patterns, as I hearken back to my first year on-the-air in Los Angeles, where I called for the S&P to break and indeed nailed the bottom on May 27th. (1970 as I recall). Of course that had been an evolving destruction of the bulls, and nothing similar is going on here. So do we get a top in May's last week? Probably not either, of course this area could prove to be just that 'if' anything harsh comes along.

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