Reflation persists while the S&P meanders with mixed internal action. This is a Tuesday and turnaround efforts were attempted until almost the 2 o'clock hour, but then faltered with the downside accelerating into the close. 

To a degree this recalls Monday when the S&P failed to react favorably with a 'stimulative' comment from the Fed Vice Chairman. While allowing rebounds in this market, there's little doubt that investors have persistently used rallies to lighten-up on for some time. I'll review some of the insider sales too, and it is not impossible that both relate not only to an expensive market, but also the potential 'bring forward' sales related to a proposed capital gains tax hike.

So far the rally last week off the 50-Day Moving Average fulfills my concern at the time that it was too perfect, too-well-timed, and really an 'automatic' rally, a term that goes back to behavioral analysis of these moves many years ago.

This is not a question of investors moving to quality or sticking with big techs, as what happens when we break the recent low at the 'then' 50-DMA, will be a bit of a downside vacuum if 'algorithmic' selling kicks in then. That's where a slew of ETF's and funds holding them get killed too, finding that diversification didn't protect them. Now that doesn't mean we don't get a reprieve, but we do have just this week and next ahead of Memorial Day. This week was the likely last week to actually break the S&P if it's possible. Viewing today, perhaps so.

Oil is consolidating after a lot of late-comers jumped aboard (we've been very bullish since under 40). So not only are we not encouraging jumping in 'now', but we maintain stability prospects based on economic realities in this world (OIL).

Many major Oils have made steep cuts to capital expenditures, they speak to optimism but they are not engaged in exploration as is the past. Lower CapEx and an increasingly stringent climate policy have forced the oil majors to lower their growth plans or sort of watch demand, which is increasing. So, analysts warn that this could set the market up for a supply crunch in the coming years hence barring pressure from Russia or the Saudi's, Oil should stay fairly firm.

In the Middle East, the Hamas wanna-be leaders for Palestinians, fired a few rockets toward the gas platforms in the Med (not as far distant as Chevron's Leviathan Field, acquired when they bought Noble Drilling, which discovered those in the joint Israeli/Greek/Cypriot Eastern Med so important over recent years as I have noted on-occasion). I suggested then, before we even had the so-called 'Abraham Accords', that the gas and some oil from these fields had prospect of helping smooth the move to peaceful relations with Jordan, Egypt (which already had relations, but is now also a customer) and others (CVX).

As to the conflict, there's enough diplomatic pressure (and more, since Israel controls fresh water and most fuel for power going into Gaza) that while these wounds will take time to heal, perhaps the objective is for Palestinians upset at the level of violence Hamas wrought, to actually reject their goal to usurp it seems any remaining authority of the PLA. This should wind-down any day.

Meanwhile.. a lot of billionaires have been selling stock for a few months as I've mentioned before. Now we have some numbers.

Jeff Bezos retains about 10% of Amazon (AMZN), but accelerated sales from 4 billion to about 7 billion dollars, mostly last November and also February of this year. Larry Ellison sold oh about 7 million shares of Oracle apparently last week (ORCL). It is also notable Mark Zuckerberg (and his foundation) sold about 2 billion this year, although that's tiny for the Facebook founder. Perhaps more interesting are sizable sales from the founders of Zoom Video (ZM) and Carvana (CVNA) (monetizing big gains to some degree makes sense even if it contradicts the perma-bulls that hate stocks that are down and prefer buying into well-advanced strength). A lot of this is from 'trading plans' and perhaps some desire to reduce liability on the tax side, should President Biden's proposals on capital gains finalize.

Elsewhere there's A&T (T), clobbered on the deal news after an initial rise, now it merits speculation as to motives which defy former solid dividend assurances.

Convincing shareholders of a company promoting a solid dividend for years to embrace a decision to essentially divest and focus on core competencies, is a tough sell. Retirement buyers (individual or funds) focused solely on dividends are not easy to convert to understanding 'enhanced total return' that Stankey, CEO of AT&T, now promises. His presentation besides 'spinning' the original or bad deals and debt (I was bearish at 40 because of that, and bullish mostly under 30).. his characterization was really poor and overly complex. But that's not to say there's not serious longer-term value, 'if' the entire deal completes.

An effort to dissect financial aspects of the pending AT&T / Discovery (DISCA) deal is a focus in the noon 2nd video below. Just guestimates as to the numbers.

In-sum: while I gave the market (still do) opportunities to bounce, there really is no significant upside room for the Indexes at the moment. But we're getting to sufficiently oversold levels in many smaller stocks, while many big stocks at this point remain in a rotational decline, following many preceding highs.