Equilibrium was lost - when an earnings-based reflex rebound restored S&P to around the 50-Day Moving Average, and then Tuesday simply worked into a more notable sell-off, given an absence-of-bids ahead of the Fed decision.

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This is not even about any change in Fed outlooks (you heard all speculation for days if not longer), but is a conflicted scenario of higher prices (as we've noted all along, only at a slower pace as there never was any real decline of prices during this year), lower manufacturing data (yesterday's Dallas Fed) as well as today's 'Dallas Fed regional services' report that affirms sloppiness in a fairly representative region compared to metro areas with serious troubles.

All that is simply 'stagflation' as I've labeled most likely for months. Further in all the deliberations, you've got political and policy debates, against somewhat of a geopolitical backdrop, where a 'ceasefire' to restore Middle East 'calm' (a footnote might be my skepticism actual calm would even be feasible for long), at least briefly could offset the markets 'Fed-focus' and take a leap forward as or if Oil prices concurrently sold-off, again, even if temporarily.

After the close Amazon 'beat' slightly and at least that's not damaging, and as of this typing, the shares are nearly unchanged on the Pacific, as the numbers get baked-in... so moments later AMZN is up 9, so there you go, dare not look askance. (Amazon Web Services has relationships with BigBear by the way, not that there's anything 'yet' to quantify how significant it may potentially be.)

Market X-ray:

An absence of bids and total plug-pulling in the last minute of regular activity, again nobody wants to make decisions ahead of the Fed.

AMD results came out, off a few points as data-center revenue dropped a bit, while gaming did as well, but I believe that was anticipated. Revenues beat a bit however..Shares also perked-up to +4 from -2 within moments of reporting.

Bottom-line:

Can't say the market will be like a pilot keying his mic hollering a 'May-Day' cry to Air Traffic Controllers, but this May day it's a Fed Chairman's remarks that will determine whether S&P dives or remains in a trading range.

Notice I didn't say soar, best Bulls hope for is a friendlier Fed (not very likely), a ceasefire in the Middle East, softer Oil prices, and lower seasonal conviction which 'is' justified based on progression of our 2-month corrective backdrop.

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