Market Briefing For Wednesday, Jun. 23
The attractiveness of stocks and sectors vary so widely now, that most bull / bear debates are somewhat academic, even though logic for a correction is there. One of my concerns has been 'so many' technicians and strategists leaning to the bearish side (typically more so than us, as we have not shorted S&P at all since calling the 'cycle' low as I believe it was on March 23rd last year and the majority have been bearish for well over a year now)... it enhances upside.
So as the internal and technical indicators flirted with 'oversold' concurrently in the case of S&P at record highs and even Nasdaq at one point, you saw the reflection I've referred to, which seemed incongruous, but obviously wasn't at least so far. While I think upside extensions for S&P from here seem so dicey, some developments are favorable. The strength in Financials flattened, but to us the real key (all year really) has been Oil, and it holds strength (SPX,COMP,NYA).
Furthermore, the stories saying the 'semiconductor chip' shortage may ease in the next Quarter suggest it's over, although I doubt the analysis on that is necessarily accurate, since COVID is on the rise in the very cities where most of the processors are made in Asia. However if so that's a big plus not just for the Semiconductor companies (actually might ease pricing somewhat), but for companies (including automobiles) that desperately hunger for those parts. At the same time this might hint at the forthcoming top of the 'used' car market.
Furthermore, the stories saying the 'semiconductor chip' shortage may ease in the next Quarter suggest it's over, although I doubt the analysis on that is necessarily accurate, since COVID is on the rise in the very cities where most of the processors are made in Asia. However if so that's a big plus not just for the Semiconductor companies (actually might ease pricing somewhat), but for companies (including automobiles) that desperately hunger for those parts. At the same time this might hint at the forthcoming top of the 'used' car market.
Most of this day saw a focus on Chairman Powell's testimony, which stood by his 'transitory inflation' posture. But it was shameful that no questions were at all asked about monetary policy. Not only were the questions political and for sure softballs, but they were self-serving along party-lines, hence theatrical. I am disappointed to see politicians still think constituents care about dragging the old political stories around, and not honing-in on the huge issue of Debt.
COVID-19.. meanwhile.. is getting the attention it deserves as more opposed to vaccinating or taking it seriously now, recognize that the 'Delta' variant is not a mere marketing tool to promote vaccines, though no denying it serves to also.
There's a conflict here, as today the WHO departed from the CDC or Europe's regulatory authorities, by advising 'against' vaccinating children. WHO isn't so trusted, but these days many lost some confidence in CDC as well. Perhaps it is an effort to regain legitimacy after WHO's obvious bending to China's will.
Although we don't know the answer about vaccinating children, we do know it is important to have solutions and treatments 'more so' than vaccines, since it will be in the future (with so many vaccinated) that people won't do anything in many cases until they show symptoms. At that point it's too late for vaccines, and what matters are therapeutic treatments. And if one gets very sick with ARDS (advanced respiratory distress syndrome) then one needs 'rescue'.
Technically, volatility is fairly robust in a few stocks, not so much in the S&P. In fact the relatively narrow movements of VIX suggests fluidity short-term. At the same time the Dollar has been firm to higher as suspected, and Oil too (VIX, OIL,UUP).
Big tech is leading the market, especially Amazon (AMZN) regardless of being pricey. If anything turn this to the exhaustion, and you might see sellers can't fight the rise of Amazon for the moment, and on the low-price end, sellers now fighting Sorrento (SRNE), which wouldn't get a multiyear deal with the Navy if the DoD didn't have some clue as to results, well sellers might give up (on both of them).
Risk appetite is still there, as well as short-covering scampering in quite a few stocks. There is talk about shifting from Industrials to Tech, but that happened already (and tech is in the lead for the mega-cap stocks that dominate). Sure, it is tough to determine what is 'quality' in the Averages, since now Tesla (TSLA) is in the S&P, and exerting too much influence potentially, given competition more or less arriving (or warming-up off-stage). Conversely Apple (AAPL) meets the test as far as quality and history of delivering results.
This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which is distributed nightly and typically includes one or two videos as well as charts and analysis. You can subscribe more