Market Briefing For Wednesday, February 7

Upside choreography persists - as regards S&P's quest for 5000. Almost everyone is looking for correction, including bears who never allowed a rally in S&P. Small-caps are barely exhibiting signs of life. Commercial property as a spoiler short-term? Maybe, despite Janet Yellen saying they're on-top of it.

So the debate roils with chicken/egg arguments about whether big-caps hold together and smaller/mid-cap stocks fill in with underpinning support, or if we get (as we must sooner or later) a reasonable retreat by S&P, as possibly it's likely to become a set-up for a Spring rally. That's unclear, as volatility mostly is nixed for now, but that too won't be the case for long 'if' a retreat is going to be in the wings, although ideally within a constructive context.

And that's been my point: the market is ripe for a consolidation but unlike last time S&P attacked 5000, this one doesn't want to surrender without a shot at it, and that is logical at this point. Sustainability widely doubted for extension, but that's the 'bullish alternative'. (Get a swing up, retreat, regroup, lift again).

To wit: straight up from here is dangerous, in a sense invites a retrenching or corrective move. Get the correction and it assists an easing of overbought (at least for the S&P) status, and can pave the way for an ensuing Spring rally. I think as you're going to get 'Quantitative Tightening' slowing down this year, it is a fairly dovish pivot (already telegraphed) by the Fed, so that's part of what is holding up S&P for now. It shouldn't negate some sort of interim 'pause'.

So after the boring Close, Ford (F) reported and popped a bit on Earnings... EV is up according to their sales, sort of opposite what GM says (moving more to Hybrid rather than full-EV). And we did have reasonably favorable comments from more Semiconductor leaders like Infineon (IFNNY) and ON Semi. (ON), reinforcing that no abandonment (just slower rollout) of Silicon Carbide systems persists.

These stocks are having alternating shuffles still, probably better this Spring, interim correction in the market or not. Many stocks ranging from Chipotle to Sonus had decent sales, and while not following those closely, there's some indication that consumers aren't retrenching as much as some concerns say.

 

Bottom-line:

Tuesday's focus was taking the S&P 500 higher (despite my vision being a bit fuzzy) and Wednesday probably features another nudge higher for the S&P.


More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, February 5
Market Briefing For Wednesday, January 31
Market Briefing For Tuesday, January 30

This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can follow Gene on Twitter  more

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