Stable seasonal recoveries can lull investors into complacency, even as it is the pattern we've anticipated ever-since coming-off October's washout low.

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While the majority of analysts (bullish or bearish) relate to interest rates (that I have opined will be lateral then declining officially, and already lower among a lot of Treasuries as traders anticipate the cycle persisting to lower yield levels) .. I add to all that the primary concern, which may be a geopolitical 'event'.

I'm not calling it a possible 'black swan', because some elements are already in-play and some have been for a year or more (whether Mideast or Ukraine). I will say any of these might resolve more favorably 'soon' or conversely, we're already in the early stages of some sort of 'world war'. And an Election Year.

Some may have been shocked by reports that Russia has somehow bribed at least one or more NY Times reporters, to write pieces suggesting Ukraine has a deteriorating situation, or for that matter such reports might be valid and just the story of corrupted reporters being the 'fake news'. Shrug. However, F-16's are about to be delivered to the Ukrainian Air Force from training in Bulgaria, with an initial total of 16 coming from Denmark and The Netherlands as pilots are trained.

That sounds like 'advantage Ukraine', and might be how they did a weekend impressive 'air-to-ground' cruise missile launch again a Russian ship, which now finds Putin's Russia with a growing 'underwater' fleet of vessels. For sure it minimizes the prospects of an amphibious Russian attack near Odessa. It's the United States recently vacillating on helping more, not European nations.

Market X-Ray: 

Aside geopolitical concerns, most are seeing next year as a compromise between softish land, an accommodation by the Fed and likely by foreign central banks too.

Most money managers have been heavy in mega-caps and light in 'also rans', with some sentiment towards owning a bit (in tech primarily) that was ignored for so long, but in some cases have business models nearing better chances of success. That's particularly so in Semiconductor-related areas (beyond the big ones), Space & Defense as well as 2nd tier AI stocks with solid prospects.

Most money managers have been heavy in mega-caps and light in 'also rans', with some sentiment towards owning a bit (in tech primarily) that was ignored for so long, but in some cases have business models nearing better chances of success. That's particularly so in Semiconductor-related areas (beyond the big ones), Space & Defense as well as 2nd tier AI stocks with solid prospects.

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