Evidence is lacking - about the quality of the more-than-dead-cat bounce we had as projected for today, so we won't try to derive absolutes about it. Surely it would have been preferable to see weakness first, then the rebound, but no such luck, it was up and then a very late fade, which leave things unresolved.

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From a technical perspective this is actually about what we'd expect, pending a couple more economic data points this week. To those trying to figure-out if we have a 'recession or not', the answer is the same: stagflation easing a bit, while segments of society remain depressed, and others are just getting by.

Market X-ray: 

More evidence required to draw conclusions about the pattern, but it probably remains within an overall declining structure with interim pause phases but works somewhat lower. Not necessarily much lower, but some.

Interconnected realities face us and the world at the moment, in a time of year that typically does 'not' see fresh money available for massive investments. In that regard we've forewarned of this kind of rocky negative S&P environment, whether it takes a short-term period to resolve or drags on into early Fall. We will stay on-top of this, but for now 'discretion remains the better part of valor'.

The duration it takes to unwind the 'Carry Trade' (triggered by Japan's move), may well determine the market's trajectory in the short run. Major firms like Goldman and Merrill are at odds speculation how long that takes, and surely, we would have no clue about that. Ask any hedger using Tokyo financing?

We got most of what we wanted as far as today, so now we need to see follow-through which will be 'difficult'.

I had lunch with a Senior Software Engineer today, who explained what really is happening with Intel's chip issue, that's short of a recall, but design 'glitch' area possibly. I can't say with certainty, but it means not expecting resolution in a short period of time, 'if' essentially certain new chips 'fry' prematurely.

I suppose the Intel (INTC) situation is directly helping AMD in-particular, Nvidia (NVDA) less so since they are so very focused on high-end GPU processors, while AMD is more aligned as a competitor to Intel, but without the possible design issue of Intel's chips that trigger concern which goes into engineering not just revenue.

Bottom-line: 

This is a market that rebounded but appears just a bit of a short-squeeze, and not conviction buying, based on the late fade. It's also on hold ahead of new data that will influence the Fed on whether to wait until September or consider an inter-meeting cut, which I don't think they are seriously contemplating as yet.

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