Rational investment policies, or a reasonable facsimile thereof, permeate media in this seriously hot late August summer; while stocks reluctantly edge off new highs. In our view the momentum high for the broad market was months ago, with rotation plus short-covering episodes joined by foreign fund flows buying stocks lots of time.
 

Whether time has 'run out' or not is debatable; though we have pointed out a broadly noticed 'capitulation' by billionaire money managers, who have also been worried. Of course the big difference is we have been flat-to-ahead through most guideline trade efforts; because we only kept skin in the game on shorts after retrieving any risked.

It matters; because it's why I thought some of those guys were betting far too big on a decline; and as they (nearly concurrently) backed-off (or resigned in one case for a Soros manager, and that sparked by remarks because they had encouraged panic in the pre-and-post-Brexit moves that we completely thought unjustified while definitely concerned about the market from a big-picture standpoint.

In recent days I simply asked if that was a sign of 'maximum frustration' by the bears and maximum complacency by those who would rather worry about beaches (sorry, even in the Hamptons you will have non-market-related storms this evening); than in any way encourage investors to worry more 'about the return OF their money; than of course the return ON their money'.

In any case, to cut to the chase; we believed the post-return (from England by yours truly) rally was a bit too much; was on low-volume; freaked out many of the big bears; and set up a worthy short-sale guideline (or investor further exodus point) in the days just past.

All these matters, plus of course another two Federal Reserve regional Presidents on the horn talking about a rate increase in September, keep optimists a bit at bay. This is what we suspected would occur (not that a market wouldn't correct and then rally in event of a hike, at least the next one, not a series) even with this being a nominal Expiration week here in mid-August.