Intense swings dominated Friday's action after the so-so Jobs number. In a sense, perhaps the OPEC meeting next week will have more global impact to contemplate the next very short-term behavior; if they cut output; and Oil price rises resume. Already some speculate about 200-300 Oil; which of course I'd argued absurd last month when Oil briefly surged to around 120/bbl.

Also, such speculation about 300/bbl Oil is still ridiculous, because economies around the world are already struggling; and would crumble into more than we see with ongoing 'recessions', if that were to happen. So we'll never get to the extreme levels; though we may well venture back above 100; and that would probably coincide with another hit to the S&P, along the way.

Furthermore; a Russian threat to boycott any Nation that puts 'price caps' on Russian Oil sales might have zero meaning in such a reduced production or shortage. As it is, the United States has become the 'swing producer' and is nobly helping European needs for Oil & LNG (gas) during the ongoing crisis.

In sum: S&P flailed and failed in efforts to attack the 50-Day Moving Average. I realize there are overwhelming bifurcations in the market; which prevail for a considerable time. They're not resolved; but 'if' you're going to 'crash' markets it has to depend on breaking the 'grand dames' to even lower levels, versus a pummeling of the already severely broken, which bounce around between the combination of late year tax selling and accumulation from amidst the rubble. 

The S&P 3900 level was essentially the uptrend line from our June low; while the Russian resumption and then shutdown of Nordstream 1 seems routine if you take the statements at face value, rather than the more 'freaked' reaction. It also begs the question as to what happens if we return Tuesday and both a still shutdown Nordstream; 'and' OPEC goes forth with cut production. Plus of course what additional tension may be stirred-up regarding Taiwan/China.

Energy war would be yet-another concern; with Janel Yellen coming out with remarks about a price cap on Oil (better not be on 'our' Oil but theirs). Nobody has tied to survive in Europe just on storage plus some North Sea Gas; so it matters. Right now the USA is the 'swing producer' helping Europe's needs.

So that's one alternative for a 'fundamental' explanation for September drops, if you need something more than the Fed, or our technically bearish evolution that is an unwinding of the projected rally from June's lows that lasted longer; well, just toss in an Oil-price-war; and/or actual conflicts around Taiwan.

Let's not debate whether Russia's Putin or the Fed's Powell are the greater of stock market trend spoilers; but we'll let both take credit if they'd like. Reality is this was shaping up since last year and the June rally was forecast as just a rebound before the 'dog days of Summer' unfolded; and then risk of a Fall fall.

I don't know that we'll have a near-death experience coming next week for the bull players; but either way there remains a bifurcated distinction between the stock sectors. Some see it as sort of a 'matrix' and will ponder whether stocks take a red pill or green pill this month. (Hint: can be both if you get an Apple Event that's well received pushing that stock that dominates the Index higher just temporarily, and then the circuits are shorted for stocks.

If you want a 'pill' comparison, it might be 'dexamyl', FDA removed decades ago. It was sort of a combined 'upper & downer' in one pill; so maybe that's the prescription for the S&P in this single month we're now in. Enough Matrix humor for now. By the decades old analog: Friday was a 'dexamyl day'. So a temporary comparison might be taking Xanax along with a morning coffee.

Bottom line: Inflation is starting to recede, so some excess fear is tempered; but the late worries about Oil prices ramping dramatically higher (Oil unlikely going as high as 200-300 insane speculations Friday); and discretionary sales are hit a bit (hence Amazon a little softer business) because average people's needs are focused on 'actual' essentials. 

Certainly Apple will be closely watched Wednesday due to its influence on the Index; and if favorable could reverse (temporarily) any Oil-induced drops that start out Tuesday (unless of course Nordstream is open; and Europe's a bit cooler (including hothead Putin) on Monday while U.S. markets are closed.

There's no change in our overall outlooks of false rallies within a shorter-term bearish context at least for now; and would welcome the Fed reevaluating.

Enjoy the holiday weekend!

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Thursday, Sept. 1
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Aug. 31
Market Briefing For Tuesday, Aug. 30