Market Briefing For Tuesday, Nov. 24

Backdrop optimism - combined with significant political appointments over the weekend or Monday, by President-Elect Biden. Combined with progress (or perception at least) regarding vaccines and what we see as very important 'antibody therapeutics' (proven by prominent 'observational trial participant' as President Trump was essentially saved by the Regeneron drug (REGN)). This tends to stabilize and further firm S&P (SPX), as did the post-close recanting by GSA.

As you know, GSA had held up federal resources amid Trump’s frenetic legal challenges to election results. GSA late today sent a letter to Joe Biden giving approval to fund the transition, which also averts legal challenges by his team which wisely calmly stayed on the back burner during the ongoing controversy (and for some reason wasn't reported having occurred on some live programs giving viewers clues as to what is really live, or at-least partially pre-recorded).

Emily Murphy, the reluctant GSA head who resisted, stated that it is not fear or intimidation but strong belief her role requires her to determine her decision based what she believes are the true facts having reviewed the Election.

(Well the GSA's Emily Murphy was wonder woman today... hah. More below as I'll update AT&T (T) and an HBO Max deal they just made with Amazon more.)

Executive Summary:

  • GSA 'go-ahead' to the Biden Team will be well-received by markets.
  • S&P will breakout of the 'overshoot zone' as I describe too.
  • Selection of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary at a time of structural unemployment that continues for months, pandemic exodus or not, is a constructive factor.
  • Her choice is as 'centrist' as could be imagined, and of course she will be essentially a 'dove' and viewed as favorable for needed stimulus efforts.
  • Eventually she might surprise with more responsible fiscal policies, since Yellen was not keen about the Trump tax cuts when initially proposed.
  • The Fed's balance sheet will weigh on future growth, but we're definitely not at that point yet, even if starts to enter the conversation.
  • And it should since what we don't want is the kind of inflation that sends a moderate inflation the Fed wants to achieve, into overdrive hyperinflation.
  • At some point the market will discount that concern, but not yet, while for sure the headwinds would arrive before the Fed gets its official 2%+ goal for inflation (with both Treasury and Fed being dovish, this will matter).
  • Debt and deficits are a topic, but they won't throw wrenches in the works at least for now, pending 'really' getting on an upward post-COVID trek.
  • The backdrop is slightly supportive of Financials, so with Banks and Oils acting decently (as hoped for), this helps the S&P retain some traction.
  • As I proclaimed since calling 'The Inger Bottom' March 23rd, shakeouts or periodic correction but no lower S&P low.
  • It's time to prepare for the 'Roaring 20's' not the 1930's and I have argued this core case for this era, against all the bears for the last 8 months.
  • We're not yet past (of course) the pandemic, but you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, from a combination of vaccines and therapeutics.

(OK.. here's the real 'wonder woman' of this day everything has views about.)

Meanwhile . . analysts continue panning AT&T, falling-back on earlier stories suggesting an eventual inability to service debt or maintain the dividend (over 7% yield). Just this morning yet-another claimed HBO MAX wouldn't succeed, and lose talent and content. Suppose I suggest that investors consider rather the opposite, as characterized in an ongoing note from AT&T's CFO.

Senior Executive VP and CFO John Stephens, spoke about the momentum in postpaid wireless plans. AT&T was able to reduce churn in the third quarter of 2020 and drive adoption of higher-tier unlimited plans that include HBO Max.

Stephens said combinations of network and user demand for entertainment, would yield long-term value creation across AT&T's customer base. I concur, and note that (after months of negotiations), HBO Max's availability on 'Fire TV', which is Amazon's, and simultaneous release of "Wonder Woman 1984" on HBO and theaters (oh my, I actually had...Linda Carter .. original Wonder Woman .. as a neighbor in LA, way back in the day).

I expected that once production would start resuming (it is), and the Amazon (AMZN) deal got made, things would perk-up. AT&T expects 2020 full-year free cash flow of more than $26 billion. Dwelling deeper into capital allocation, Stephens said AT&T's dividend payout ratio for full-year 2020 will be in the high 50's%.

AT&T refinanced more than $60 billion of debt at historically low rates and has $30 billion debt due through 2025. A combination of higher free cash flow and lower-priced debt gives it the financial strength to invest in high-growth areas of fiber, 5G, and HBO Max. So, for conservative investors in my view, it's fine.

Stephens also said AT&T's integrated fiber strategy will improve connectivity for both consumer and enterprise markets and enhance its 5G network quality in a cost-efficient manner. I personally have AT&T fiber, and it's been great. It is also true that AT&T is generating savings from efficiencies, organizational alignments (Elliott Management put pressure on them), and more. I'm noting all this due to the uninformed negative comments on some TV channels that I seriously disagree with, and believe investors in this area will be fine. (We did not pay up, in fact we were bearish at 40 and bullish sub-30 and still are.)

It matters as AT&T saw traction in the third-quarter in mobility and broadband, and by doing so beat the consensus Bloomberg and others had for it. Another example: Broadband net adds of 158,000 surprised analysts expecting a net add loss of 73,000. Domestic HBO and HBO Max subscribers totaled more than 38M and 57M, exceeding its year-end target of 36 million subscribers. So I stand by my optimism every time 'T' drops down to the 27-28 area.

Also.. time doesn't permit me to write about it now, but one of the founders of ISP Optics, the New York and Latvia firm acquired by LightPath (LPTH) a few years ago, is now taking an important position of Strategic Development at LPTH. That may be while it crept up to the $3 area today and perhaps will do more near-term as well as gives an idea of their expanding plans, even globally.

Bottom-line: for now, the market's 'indecision' pattern in what I call the S&P overshoot zone is going to resolve to the upside.

Later, when stocks correct, traders will say it's due to contemplating whether a Democrat win of both Senate seats in Georgia changes the idea of gridlock in Congress, making it tougher for Biden to keep things balanced. I suspect that is not a concern for now, and that regardless there's lots of spending ahead.

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