Market Briefing For Tuesday, March 26

Alternating moves that seemed perplexing late last week on the 'Inverted Yield Curve' (Dow up Thursday and down Friday), made no sense. However once we heard knowledge Mueller's Report was coming out after the Close, it was pretty clear that an 'absence of bids' allowed 'incremental selling' very clearly to shakeout the market. I suspected news had slipped out early.  

  

Over the weekend when I heard former U.S. Attorney saying they heard of it forthcoming around lunchtime in Washington, it was pretty clear that was a clear factor for traders having zero desire to put money in markets the rest of Friday. To that one might add: why did financial media (as far as I know) not report that as behind the market's 'vacuum' rather than 'interest rates'? It seems they usually hear leakage of everything, but not the Mueller report? I am slightly cynical about such things, since I knew they knew about serious risks they weren't reporting during the 'derivatives crisis' build-up in 2007.  

In any event markets rebounded 'a bit'; but not a lot as economic concerns, as well as potential benefits of a 'China deal' are both out there. So is Brexit again, with resignations and the Parliament taking control of what happens. If that flies, the complexity of all this persists; and while that should be sort of an impediment even to a U.S. intraweek rally, you do have a softer Dollar implied for Tuesday, given tonight's strength in the Pound. But again none of it is really a certainty.  

In essence, everyone knows the ongoing debates, recriminations, disputes, worries about what happens from residual Congressional reviews, possible moves by the Southern District of New York etc. etc. Perhaps the one that's really important is that 'China' sees the stability of the Trump Presidency so goes ahead and follows-on with the 'trade negotiations'. It's not impossible they had some hesitations should it look like his future (or re-election?) had reduced prospects of 'continuity'.  

  

Apple Announcements - Points to note:  

  • Apple TV+ will be exclusive content; no streaming older libraries; it does not blow-away the competition; and will depend on the perception of the quality of programming (with Spielberg and Oprah on-stage, the promise of quality content is there); pricing was not announced;
  • This 'almost' kills the Apple TV box/device (in some views); but does not to me because 'smart TV' systems usually run slower and don't always support Atmos sound, Dolby Vision and so on (many modern TV's show a better picture in a nuanced way with an Apple TV box);
  • The revamped Apple TV 'app' is said to include DirecTV (NOW, regular or both wasn't clear), as well as 'most' streaming streaming services; but that matters, and many specifics remain unknown;
  • Apple TV+ will clean-up the jumble of 'services', and gaming and stuff in the 'kids' realm will really be an improvement;
  • 'Newstand' will be notable because it includes the Wall Street Journal at a lower cost than buying a WSJ subscription (interest business move);
  • My focus on today's presentation was to note one product which changes the dynamics; that product is 'Apple Card', previously announced with Goldman Sachs as forthcoming. But now we know 'the deal', and it looks quite promising for a number of reasons; including more favorable treatment versus so many providers, and while affiliated with MasterCard, may compete very effectively with their existing brand cards (and push others to 'cash back or no annual fee' structures);
  • The credit card / ApplePay business alone is a plus for Apple ahead;
  • By the way the next version / update to MAC OS is released tonight;
  • Tim Cook had promised to double the 'services' segment and should do that or more over time. And that provides a based under the stock.

In-sum: between all the shuffles the S&P generally is still trading largely not much beyond the range we'd discussed around the 2800 level.  

  

MP's have wrested control of Brexit from PM May; and that is not having an impact on U.S. futures at presstime tonight. At least not yet. 

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