Market Briefing For Tuesday, March 12, 2024

'Immaculate Rotation' - is a term heard these days to despite the market, as it muddles through mild consolidation, more than an (overdue full correction) that isn't required in many areas that have not move significantly as of yet.

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There are leveraged players overplaying some of the big stocks, while minor rotation has lifted the slightly secondary mega-caps. Extended valuations are not a worry it seems, though they should be in stocks that went to excess. It's the market's version of 'fight club', don't talk about 'fight club'. Don't talk about excess valuation in some of the mega-caps is a parallel. Well, we think now it is time for talking about 'valuations' and differentiating Application Software in disruptive, military or especially security areas where it's incredibly essential.

 

 

During a small gathering of friends Sunday, one aerospace genius asked me 'why' I'd have an interest in a stock like BigBear.ai rather than a big player. My answer, as you'd expect, is that 'they' have already been played, while if it is a goal to potentially make some interesting percentages, one need to take a shot here or there on companies with lots of promise rather than admirable achievements and products already fully reflected in their share prices.

And I added that doesn't mean I'd be bereft of our AMD (or NVDA if that was yours, as it's the same story), just taking parts off the take with goals reached and trying not to be too greedy, but retain enough so 'if' price continues up of course there is decent representation.

 

Market X-ray: 

Real rates are higher than perhaps they ought to be without a Fed rate cut. If you heard the President over the weekend, it's almost as he had an inside track to when he spoke Saturday about a point drop in rates. It is well known that the Fed proclaims independence from politics, so we'll see.

Of course everyone wants to know what happened to LATAM's Boeing 787, as the Dreamliner is thought to be the best of Boeing's airliners. I view this as so, primarily because the 787 and the Airbus A350 are the only jets without what is called 'bleed air' for the HVAC system. And because of primarily composite build, the 787 can be pressurized to a lower equivalent altitude, hence lower risk of deep-vein-thrombosis or even less jet lag at your destination. There's no information yet available on 'what' caused the drama near New Zealand.

I think the only drama is about Boeing (BA) in-general, which has a 'culture issue' of course plus perhaps hidden or sloppy documentation (on 'Max' door bolts) but...each of 5 instances of problems in the past 10 days are distinctly unique. I haven't invested in Boeing since the initial 'Max' disaster, and not inclined as yet. I do think (for America) this has to be sorted-out as you cannot have France as the only primary airliner manufacturer, and their aircraft are generally lots more dependent on computer controls than are the products from Boeing. It's essential though that people hired to build airliners are based solely on merit.

(The 'whistleblower' about the Boeing Carolina plant 'culture' killed himself it's being reported this evening. He was with Boeing for over 30 years, talked with investigators as recent as days ago we hear. Sad to report this.)

Meanwhile the market is narrow and awaiting CPI to perhaps affirm that the President might be referring too, such as knowing inflation's at a lower pace, and thus inferring a rate cut not too far over the horizon going forward.


More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Monday, March 11, 2024
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Market Briefing For Wednesday, March 6

This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can follow Gene on Twitter  more

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