The 'Fed crutch' - might be a less patronizing way for Wall Street to describe a few months of incredible ease and funding, that (among other assists), helped a beleaguered stock market recovery, just as projected specifically on March 23rd amid 'max-fear' as I termed the panic capitulation that was ongoing. 

Executive Summary:  

• Full-year recovery for S&P; longest win-streak in 2 years, and thank you.

• All-time highs for NASDAQ, with interest broadening-out as desired.

• The 'tale of two markets' (big-cap techs and small stocks) were the core chemistry that made this advance possible and the extension.

• Proponents of civic egalitarianism are referencing it economically, and that can having market impact later, 'if' the movement is viewed as a political power, rather than legitimate effort to unite the nation from long division.

• The jobs report most continue to 'pretend' was so favorable (we wish it were that great), might inhibit the Fed's FOMC statement Wednesday, 'if' the Fed decides to 'clarify' the BLS error, as I did Friday before the media put a political spin on it.

• I noted (for-instance) and CBS also noted it as an error on '60 Minutes' Sunday night (we're right it just means people ran with the error and of course that helped the market too, and nobody wants to undo it.

• Shares in Cathay Pacific, Swire and Air China have been suspended from trading pending announcement (probably restructuring).

• UK launches new 14-day quarantine; further hobbling international travel.

• Concurrently PM Johnson announces new 'easing/openings' in the UK.

• North Korea has cut communication lines with South Korea, no reason given.

• By the way I do expect some calming of U.S./China tensions, we cannot at this point break-off supply chain relationships to the extent desired.

• WHO says symptomatic COVID-19 spread is 'very rare', which contradicts everything that precedes, so we'll see.

• A Los Angeles Doctor speaks to a Netherlands study of small child to adult COVID-19 spread, but that too needs confirmation as contradicts most work.

• Finally on COVID-19, a Norwegian study is another one suggesting the virus 'was' engineered (man-made), and has strands that are not natural, again we'll see what the follow up is from that study. 

Just in case you are new to this page, we reversed from bear to bull, and on a dime. For several weeks we've gradually recognized S&P 3000, then S&P 3100 as targets, but not really resistance, since we're 'above' resistance. It matters, because (technically) that gives us 'cushion' under the market with any setback that may materialize.  

There is a concern because just lately, some old-line pundits or technicians that I'd observed as mostly bearish throughout the advance, are throwing tantrums about how technically the market 'never' does this against logical patterns (their version of logical patterns, I've had no problem with this one since March since I expected it could not seriously decline with the list dominated by big-caps, and I felt if oil and banks kicked-in a bit, that would help broaden upside overall).  

So now these fine chaps think the market is healthy and going to go higher. OK, fine by me. However, when the crowd that 'finally' sees upside confirmation gets bullish, it's almost like a certain NFL-head being shamed 'as if' he were wrong in some ways, when he had donated millions after Hurricane Katrina.  

Oh, I better not touch on hypocrisy, because too many people are risking more than they're aware of, by endorsing what they 'think' is just a civil rights cause, when in actuality it has potential to be a strong political movement, which upsets the existing order. In this respect (by the way) I'm not endorsing or condemning anything, just saying it's got the makings of something that is more about power and money, not just civil rights, being opposed to police brutality, or equality of opportunity. I'll not expound on this now, but egalitarianism in 'upward mobility' and opportunity, can be extreme in a movement to the point of combativeness.  

There's much more to say about it (but I hold my tongue), but the trend just for now, that to have any opinion or interpretation of events deviating from a 'theme or script' typically espoused in media or even by big companies, celebrities and politicians, without seeing someone castigated (look at the editorial staff like the Philadelphia Inquirer, or firings that have occurred, which seem unjust given that people were concerned about a broader picture or expressing opinions slightly askance the almost 'commanded' theme), is threatening: carried to extreme that could be a concern for markets... potentially. More another time; perhaps.  

Meanwhile . . . the market has worked into an overbought condition with what I have described as two distinct phases, the leadership of the 'super-caps', then a broadening-out that included Oils & Banks, so that allowed the extension. The point here is that the oil rally made be running-out of steam having hit our target of 40/bbl, at least temporarily, and with the Saudi's limiting production cut timing. So, that doesn't mean nonperforming loans suddenly perk-up, but there are real concerns, and we better keep an eye on the geopolitical issues too.  

Individual stocks were mixed, with some nice upside in small-cap speculatives as well. LightPath (LPTH) continued it's breakout, and looks like it will press 3 sooner than later (and as it's recognized possibly higher), cellular back-haul Ceragon (CRNT) is borderline coming-back-to-life a bit, with volume expanding as it tries climbing a bit over it's declining technical trend, and as Needham views it favorably (plus it is perhaps anticipating better growth from 5G in India, one of it's key customers, and in-general because back-haul capacity is stretched in much of the world as everyone is increasingly using wireless communications during this pandemic, and as it will be an enduring growth for demand down-the-road too.

And there's little Sorento (SRNE), a speculative 'antibody' cocktail for COVID-19 (it is not in human trials yet), plus an arthritis treatment (separately, a product without opioid aspects, which may be more interesting). It's always one working with big partners (maybe), the FDA views favorably (maybe), raises money with dilution (a concern and one reason like other biotechs I'm always a bit skeptical) .. stock that has been in the media a lot, and whose CEO unabashedly calls his COVID-19 drug 'great' and does everything. I have no idea, but wanted to see it back in the 3's, and did not express a willingness to buy it -presumably for a trade but might be longer- until today around the mid 4's. That's after learning their CEO would be on Cramer's show (as can be good or bad), hence it was a rare speculative trigger in mid-afternoon.  

To be clear, the interview was good, but not much new that I could glean (having read a bit about it), this evening the stock is over 5. So, 'if' you got any, whether to trade out or hold is the question each will have to make, I don't have enough conviction to suggesting chasing it, when you can almost assume that some people will be selling it on follow-through strength. It's not to say it won't then settle-back or for that matter revisit 10, from weeks ago. I will keep an eye on it. As I said last week, it was interesting but seemed fairly aggressively pushed in previous media appearances, but may be justified. Sure I hope so, if for no other reason than we all want to see an effective COVID-19 treatment become available. If they have that (and it's a big 'if' to be determined in the future).. well.  

In-sum: I have consistently believed that Fed stimulus plus low-rates is a 'crutch', which in polite terms is called a 'Fed Put' and that it would dominate the street behavior (now there's a pun). That was the basis for opposing all the naysayers (among them some of the best known analysts, managers, or the Wall Street strategists, the majority of) which were bearish on extending the run.

Now you have more unanimity of accepting the upside, which increases risks of a topping process as the S&P climbs the worry wall.