Post-Expiration rebounding was logical, though carried way to extremes in some Indexes, but not reflected with comparable large gains in many stocks. It had traction, but the feel of a combined short-squeeze on a crowd last week fighting the Fed, and contending Jerome Powell was very hawkish (wasn't).

Friday you had a lot of sell programs associated with Quadruple Expiration, a Quarterly phenomenon that isn't always down. Today's move brings-out most of the protagonists, while the antagonists mostly focus on global COVID spread for example. Or the drop by Bitcoin (etc.) and severe Chinese restrictions (BITCOMP).

(This should be a reminder of the scorching heat and drought which certainly will not ease much upward price pressure on products from the Southwest, and I not referring... pun intended... to imports from LA's congested ports.)

Speaking of, it's only a couple weeks ago that the crypto-crowd advocated for Bitcoin on the premise that if digital currencies dropped, so would the market. Of course there was no connection, as S&P (SPX) soared while Bitcoin tanked as I have suggested it would and should (ideally will break 30,000 over time).

There's really one overriding factor behind the market's strength: grow and of course OIL. I appreciate the comments from a couple members who actually have been long WTI all year, aside Oil stocks which also have done well. My bullishness from the 30's / bbl remains, but now is not the time to chase Oil (OIL, BNO).

In fact I need to mention this because several analysts are being paraded to investors talking about $100/bbl oil again. Same guys that hated it in the 30's in some cases. Now they like it, so that means the game is largely played. At the same time I say 'largely' based on the price per barrel, not strong demand status, which persists. 

I have contended for well over a year that the lower production and demand in the midst of the pandemic was 'transitory', while some kept extolling the virtue of moving to EV, solar and so on. Fine, but all that is premature. Because that theme was even embraced by some oil companies, you got lower exploration and drilling expenditures and planning, which also tends to support Oil prices.

Now, you have production picking up just a bit, and drilling rig activity as well. However demand has risen faster and now everyone suddenly discovers they need Oil & Gas, and that cancelling pipelines and other distribution outlets will only serve as price supports as well. Politicians may be right about 2030-2040 but they are wrong-headed to impose those beliefs on how life goes on now.

I also am thinking that despite people arguing the 'radical' mullah who now is Iran's new President, will be more accommodative to rejoining the nuclear deal, I am not convinced this will go so well. Maybe it's for 'show' to his followers of course, but in his first News Conference today he demanded US sanctions be removed 'first', and also said he refuses to meet with President Biden (nobody asked him to meet as far as I know, in fact he's personally been sanctioned).

I can only hope that Washington isn't so stupid as to be influenced by a small handful of semi-Islamist types that somehow are in the House. Their colors became a bit more visible lately by trying to make moral equivalence between victims and attackers or terrorists, as that's should be a non-starter for any American, and mixed among Europeans (nothing new).

In-sum, too many bears were around in the market, so you got more than a slight rebound so far. I question whether it's sustainable, beyond a few days if that. Also, runs into the month-end re-balancing (especially the Russell) which again can yield mixed results as far as market action (IWM).