E Market Briefing For Tuesday, July 6

Fireworks are seasonal and nevertheless stretch the 'risk-curve' further. So whether it's China interfering in their own IPO's (makes American companies even more reticent to get involved with the CCP, which is both good and bad; depending on the short-run or further along); or a recalcitrant OPEC member, there are pinpricks around the edges that should get investor attention.

For now the debate rages between (for instance) Bank of America saying 'the party's over' (I believe it's year two for that view); or Goldman saying 'we're in the best two weeks of the year now' (they usually are bullish most of the time; how could they not considering who they do investment banking for). I know; investment banking is separate from securities analysis; they don't talk. Sure.

There's a cloud 'expanding' over this market; almost like thunderstorms blow up in a late Summer afternoon. Hurricanes also build under the daylight sun, as well as absorb moisture from the hottest seas below (which is why Elsa will be more dangerous as she enters warmer Florida Straits / Gulf water).

But in this case I'm referring to the 'meme' stock fanaticism that generally has been disassociated from run-of-the-mine normal investment-grade securities. I'm just unconvinced it's going to stay that way. While a resurgent Covid is the single greatest potential 'economy-wrecking' catalyst for now to fret about (it's not political so it's ok to fret); the bushwhacking of the market could be 'meme stock liquidation waves'. So I'm fairly concerned after this (nod to Mom's b'day seasonal rally) runs it course; we'll have such risk pressing the market overall, even if most managers don't think a break in those memes would give broad exposure to the general market. I think it could indeed be excuse for a shake.

There's been concern for this market for a long time, as I've opined before. So that's actually helped the S&P and NASDAQ achieve these highs; and we've not fought that or the Fed through this entire time. The Fed was at the core of my raging bullishness on March 23rd 'last' year; nailing that low. Besides that, it is the general skepticism (we have that too; but not coming off the lows and all along like some who are bears even if fully invested..hah)... the skepticism has helped the market; compelled periodic short-covering and defeated bears on every effort to shakeout the S&P for more than a few percentage points.

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This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which is distributed nightly and typically includes one or two videos as well as charts and analysis. You can subscribe more

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