Most markets have been resilient in the face of February pendulums that've been swinging sectors in alternating moves, mostly that are relatively nominal.

Things are not softening much; the Fed risks pushing the very segment of our society they proclaim to want to 'protect' by their inflation fight; and they have not accepted the reality of the 'limits' of their capability in that regard. At least that's what hawkish rhetoric from (mostly non-voting) FOMC members infers.

So they have have noble intent; but if they don't embrace Chairman Powell's 'slower pace' mantra; they risk breaking something. I suspect Powell knows it, and must (despite the hubris of the FOMC members) realize not only how late they were to come-off unnecessarily low prolonged low rates; but how factors contributing to inflation of this generation, are not the same as days of yore.

Capital is moving into areas where it needs to and even National Security will demand; regardless of NY Times articles warning about 'Artificial Intelligence' stealing the 'nuclear codes', or any of that. Sure everyone needs to be careful but to a degree I suspect the dumbing-down of Ai enthusiasm is also part of a need to calm society, while the Defense Department actually scrambles faster to embrace Ai, especially when it comes to predictive battle management.

In sum: I'm not going to add much more on this brief Expiration Day review. What it does suggest is 'if' we're going to have an intraweek rally next week, stocks in a sense should rise sooner rather than later.

That's both technically with just a shortened four-day trading week upcoming, and because most players were away on Friday; hence a relative absence of bids other than Expiration itself. So if they're going to bounce it; it will be soon.

Bottom line: So-called easy money (but it's never easy) was made coming off the October and December lows into our projected January Effect rally. Now we have forecast February alternating chop, sort of defensive, but not really a devastating retreat, and that may well be a set-up process for a Spring rally.

It is indeed a process; and a big part of that is 'money managers' who stayed negative too long (or too late) and need 2023 performance and their bearish stance isn't doing it for them. So they're nibbling on pullbacks in my view and that is part of what stokes the market, regardless of the detrimental chatter in internet, TV, and even Wall Street 'rooms' (I didn't say boiler rooms haha).

It thus pits superficial bears and skeptics against the Fed; which finds politics opposes them too; since neither Congress nor The White House want the US to be in a deeper economic 'funk' while we are also in the midst of a war and spending programs that the Fed won't retard. Institutional interests have to be in this market from their perspective, regardless of what they say to reporters.

Meanwhile there's no implosion; no onslaught of selling in a broad way; and it is really pretty neutral around the S&P 200-day Moving Average even after it broke briefly. That's a generally healthy sign although we .. we shall see.

You could even get a rebound and then a few percentage point drop in bigger stocks; while interesting individual stocks behave somewhat independently.

Enjoy the Presidents Day holiday before an intraweek rebound attempt.

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Market Briefing For Thursday, Feb. 16
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Feb. 15
Market Briefing For Tuesday, Feb. 14