Market Briefing For Tuesday, Apr. 20

Portfolio 'convexity' - as managers term internal sector rotation (rebalancing in a sense), is really what the market is counting on to hold together. Extreme liquidity being shoved into the capital markets (because credit markets remain unattractive) includes pension funds that normally steer away from stocks.

Does this set-up a big problem? For them at some point; but not comparable, of course, to the leveraged hedge and other funds that have nebulous margin essentially. That's leverage as varies depending on their banking relationships and can't be quantified, unless or until one of them 'blows up' like we've seen.

We'll get to a point where the Fed starts reducing liquidity (policy tapering), at the same time they are loathe to actively contemplate that (at least publicly) at this point. When that happens, choppy won't be the term to apply to the S&P.

In the interim, we're not in an 'end-game' unless it's just the short-term froth. If the Fed does 'not' begin to remove it's accommodative stand, corrections likely will stay within context of the super-cycle that we believe began March 23, '20 rather than a decade ago. (Not just because I called it the 'Inger Bottom' that day; along with stating the S&P will not see lower lows for years to come, but as short-lived as the preceding early 2020 plunge we also identified was; that was technically a 'bear market', and most dismiss that assessment. We don't.)

Also, an unwind of equity euphoria should still be on-tap; and we've identified late April and parts of May as likely rocky. So the 'antenna are up', but there is still concentration in the 'heavy lifters'. On Monday the appropriate break over the weekend in Bitcoin (BITCOMP) couldn't hold a rebound; and like I suspected with that Coinbase (COIN) direct listing; that was a time to exit not enter, on the excitement. It's separate (but relates) to 'everyone' asking me about crypto while in-hospital.

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