Market Briefing For Thursday, Oct. 27

Panicky peddling pummeled prices primarily positioning primadonnas into swan dives, which could well make them interesting as their fall digs into Fall.


S&P (SPX) maintained a decent structure, positive divergences I noted last night in a way (comparing the prior oversolds that preceded the rebound), and barring a systemic event, it could get quite interesting once I'm back on dry land. Yes you'd need a Fed flattening if not a pivot, but as I've said 'blindingly hiking so much' is a mistake given the clear visibility of other factors contributing to the inflation and other problems (starting with the war, which needs to end).

The Fed is functioning more on preserving credibility than responsibility, and if they don't recognize that it's problematic. We've suggested the Dollar was too high so after years (maybe a decade) of Dollar bullishness, the unsustainable nature of strength was observed, and largely as there was capital flight into a slew of US financial assets reflecting the global instability risks too.

The most violent rallies can take place in bear markets, so I'm not particularly inclined to label all this as that, since 'if' the Fed steps-back and the war ends, well it's off to the races. Remember we've already had nearly 20 months of selling last year, internal distribution and big-cap insider selling, under-cover of the strong S&P and NDX. Now those leadership (laggards relatively I may say) stocks are under pressure, which could preceded a new upward phase.

It's tough this time of year and will probably remain erratic and further affirm the suspicion it's a better time for active rather than passive investing. 


Market shrugged-off horrible earnings misses and even mild ones in big-techs. I won't delve into whether Meta/Facebook is intentionally wasting assets but they're likely shrinking to conserve money per admonition of now-retired Cheryl Sandberg. Meta (META) is spending it's way out of profitability.

I also see the Dollar rolling over, and the 'category of Generals' slammed at the same time the average stock including small caps basically held position. That is not to say they won't join the decline if we get an 'event' (systemic or similar), but is to say the troops are already pummeled and holding defenses reasonably well, while the Generals are retreating pretty much at a fast pace.

This might spread into other stocks tomorrow, but that's not clear as they're really awaiting Apple (AAPL). Even stocks like Align (ALGN) (makes Invisilign) the 'retainer' company got creamed. Many stocks are suffering, but mostly the big ones. I didn't like Ford's (F) report either, that one we do have, but from 12 not higher and also I am not impressed with their vehicle portfolio so much now, since I heard about limited towing capability of the EV F-150 and personally checked-out the EV Mustang and was not as impressed as many are (but I am recoiling from sticker-shock on many of the EV's 67k for the Mustang as well as pushing 70k for a properly equipped F-150..seems high to me).

More By This Author:

Market Briefing For Wednesday, Oct. 26
Market Briefing For Monday, Oct. 24
Market Briefing For Wednesday, Oct. 19

This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which includes videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can subscribe here.

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