Moderating activity - or even a slightly negative tone to 'Beige (Tan) Book' data out today, reflected what we already know: moderating wage increases, continued high prices, and the contours the Fed wants are sort of lacking.

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The Fed wants a slowdown in wage growth 'and' slower price growth, and the data sort of suggests the Nation could be on the cusp of that. However, lots of this economic activity is bifurcated too: infrastructure, Government work, and a lot of Defense spending. How that factors into a 'Beige Book' report really is mixed, since some areas (for instance) could have robust military spending at the same time the consumer economy suffers (typical in the South). On top of all this we have insured or uninsured storm repairs often in the same areas.

Also, today Yields have been on the move, sloppy Auction and higher foreign rates, such as in Japan. (Tokyo highest yield in over a dozen years.) Ripples in the 'carry trade' could be reflected in the future, but that's not quite now.

After the close SalesForce (CRM) guided lower (hit hard), C3.AI was optimistic, and rose a bit, while 'Generative AI' remains the focus (we think 'voice Generative AI is undervalued, but hardware is pretty expensive).

As for Wednesday, perhaps 'chatter' regarding Elon Musk having a 'place' in a new Trump Administration is more significant than the New York Trial going to the Jury (with odd instructions), regardless I could see Elon 'elevated' if the Trump saga ends with another term for 'the Donald'. (What a circus this is.) In the 'space' sector it was AST Spacemobile soaring on their Verizon (VZ) deal, but of course there are multiple players. However, ASTA has large vehicles right beneath the size of the ISS, which can be viewed in varying ways (if militarily it can be viewed as an easier target for Russian or Chinese space weapons), or maybe this is the predecessor to US Space Force weapons systems (?).

And finally, managed healthcare stocks are getting hit.. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Humana (HUM) in particular, plus we'd avoid the sector, also avoiding the small companies that are increasingly offering 'at-home' services to delay need for nursing home among the very frail elderly. There is a need but share behavior in such stocks is mediocre. Probably, as requires subsidized funding.

We have a bit of inverted yield curve, but nothing much is impacting...for now. If one asks if the S&P rally will run out of steam, it already has. We're about 1500 off the S&P peak a couple weeks ago, and the questioning cycle returns mostly related to 'whether or not' rates will shift. It was simply time to set-back and from a macro perspective nothing really significant has changed as yet.

Thursday probably again starts S&P lower with no impetus for recovery now, but not particularly heavy, even as relates to month-end activity on Friday with a caveat: Fed-favorite PCE arrives Friday, it could indeed move the Indexes.

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