Uncomfortably comfortable sort of describes this market, led by Oil and a couple of Ai-related stocks, but not feeling as robust as the S&P level might hint to a casual observer of the action.

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Coming-up on the Quarter's end, we've been looking for the market to shuffle but hold-together, because of a likely stutter-step in April, but not a trend break. At least not based on a modified bull-market journey as we perceive ongoing.

The outlook for big-cap earnings remains relatively strong, despite wavering or even contradictory perspectives coming from multiple analysts/economists surveyed. Our view has been continued 'inflation' but merely evolving at what I term a 'slower pace', hence little justification for 'cutting rates' but it's coming if for no other (cynical) reason than it's an Election Year. Also consumers sort of want it more so than most industries need it or even Banks for loan volume (they generally have sufficient demand even absent particularly lower rates).

Turnover in Housing might be an aspect of this, and it's improving despite the limited easing in conventional mortgage rates. Generally seasonal a Housing improvement is being portrayed as some sort of big recovery, which it isn't of course, but it will suffice as a muted increase in listing and Spring business.

Market X-ray: 

Doesn't seem to be much change or shift in assessments. We've got a solid Dow Industrial move, a strong S&P move, and a decent NASDAQ rally, but again the concentration towards Quarter's-end remains that the major stocks money managers are 'comfortable' participating in, with most uncomfortably unwilling to focus on the Russell (or more precisely) disruptive innovative plays in the small-cap sector.

We favor a reasonable core selection of big-cap stocks, and even have said so for years. What we've tried to do is add a 'sprinkling' of speculative stocks that tend to be smaller-cap, and few have done much of anything, especially this year. But that also creates a lopsided perspective of where 'value' is, as it might proved (down the road) to have been less risky in the under-exploited.

Bottom-line:

S&P and a lot of others stagger towards the Q1 'finish line', while the Indexes sport gains that are comparatively harder to discern when you look at individual issues.

Again, that's characteristic of 'hiding' (or adding) in the big winners of the past. There's no particular requirement for the Index to break yet, but as many deny the possibility, odds of some type of short-term retreat increases. I believe that becomes a concern in April's first half, but again not dramatically.

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