E Market Briefing For Thursday, Jan. 14

For nearly a yearsince projecting a similarly-timed S&P shakeout, for a late January/early February time-frame, so many market influencers 'evolved' shall we say. As we got into last January I escalated warnings to a 'crash alert', as I heard first hand from investors who had been to China, or had relatives there, and that information came partially from attendees at my Florida Money Show presentation (the last in-person event). I'm updating this for those who are apparently frustrated  that the market hasn't collapsed I guess, because I rightly advocated 'against' shorting for quite some time, now.

My point is when I hear chartists comparing this year with last year and entirely do omit the backdrop of COVID. Though it lingers, the prospect of emergence may limit the downside of the next shakeout, to nothing like what we got last year.

Executive Summary:

  • The stock market continues relatively sanguine during not just my illness (not yet defined), but as suspected not heavily moved by political unrest.
  • The President, via an email to Fox News, called for an orderly transition to the new Administration, and requested no violence or vandalism.
  • Nevertheless the House moved forward with Impeachment, and with 10 Republicans voting 'yay', it passed, however no Senate action is expected.,
  • If we can calmly get through the next week, the influence on the market may well wane, but we'll still be looking for a shakeout in the S&P.
  • Because the market (and corporations) are 'somewhat' adjusted to these pandemic business conditions, there is rotation from pricey super-caps to the infrastructure (or similarly under-priced sectors affirming a forecast of several months ago.
  • It take lots of 'heavy lifting' from the broad market to offset big-cap 'sag' if that really arrives, however so far that area is holding together, thus helps the S&P to 'hang-around' in the low 3800's around our maximum target or measure for this overall phase of technical action.
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