In 'And the Band Played On' - about the AIDS Epidemic, the depressing story of the first years of the Epidemic were broken down into essentially three key elements. Those were: Dr. Don Francis of Atlanta's CDC, with his experience combating Ebola and earlier Smallpox, trying to grasp an understanding of the basics of the HIV virus that Dr. Montenier in France from the Pasteur Institute and Dr. Gottlieb at UCLA had isolated, patient populations that were incomplete panic and frustrated at being ignored, as well as (contributing to that) a complacent hierarchy at the top levels of our Government, which didn't know what to do about it.  

I had the honor of briefly interviewing Dr. Francis about this back then, and it was patently clear that a few epidemiologists were truly frightened by the potential threat the virus posed, while others didn't feel it directly threatened them, so somehow life would go on as usual.  

To a degree it did, and President Reagan didn't fully comprehend or enter the fight against the virus, until Nancy's friend Rock Hudson, came down with it. At that point the President (asides his discomfort) took action. And yes I liked Ron Reagan, who was kind enough to reference yours truly in a Business Council breakfast meeting years earlier as then-Governor (I began my small career in LA on the Nation's 1st financial TV channel way before the competitive gleam of CNBC entered GE's vision). At that point, it seemed the National Consciousness was aware and motivated to act.

Skip forward to the present era. After initial complacency (which can also be compared to 'full speed ahead for Titanic' as she entered icy waters of the North Atlantic trying to set a record on her maiden voyage to America despite warnings of 'ice' floes), they did post lookouts and contemplate a reduction in speed; but didn't do so in a timely fashion. Present era: after the Provincial health officials in China minimized the broader significance and ignored Dr. Li's warnings (who then died after being resuscitated.) it ran up to the top of the Chinese Central Committee and they not only got proactive, but President Xi proclaimed 'grave concern' for China.

My belief was (and remained throughout these past weeks) that China's President would never have used such terms without being really scared of the implications and actual knowledge of the under-reported situation. Unfortunately, we now know that my concerns were well-founded, as now we're in an even more desperate situation in Asia, partially because for a reason that's unclear (but we spoke of in the last couple days), Chinese officials decided to downplay threats by redefining what 'confirmed case' meant.  

I was fairly upset by that move since we clearly heard patients were told not to go to hospitals, not to seek help, but just self-isolate and see how they do. Hence no tests, and no confirmation of anything wrong for them. Plus I thought China (and I understand the desire) wanted to get to work, so people can make money and the economy doesn't entirely collapse.  

Now we see what truly happened. The headlines I tended to dispute (even this morning when they continued the nonsense about a diminution of virus or 'peak virus', which it could not really be), reversed a great deal during the day, when the truth about Singapore risk emerged, as their medical leaders started warnings, as did the WHO (which was somewhat 'in Beijing's pocket' earlier as I suggested a couple of times), which warned of global outbreaks (yes the idea of 60% of the world impacted).  

Now tonight we have Dr. Gottlieb (not the HIV discoverer, but the current one who was previously FDA head) reflecting on (finally) more realistic as well as tragically sad data for Wednesday in Hubei province alone, which reports 15,000 new cases (that's not a typo) and 240 deaths (double plus what we had yesterday for the latter, and 10x for the former). And if that's what they are compelled to report, as they revise their standards back to the real approach of identifying 'confirmed' cases'; what does it mean? It's likely saying that it's spread more broadly in China, and is uncontained.  

In-sum: This is really the only issue of paramount importance for the moment. And if the stock market is really rallying because of capital inflows from abroad and flight to safety buying (and it has), that's a temporary phenomenon we indeed have identified but is not sustainable.  

That also implies that 'when' this move (whether now or in the future) hits severe headwinds, such as might be considered when Wall Street stops being focused on charts and algo's, and starts to actually 'think about it', in terms of what happens if we're looking at more than Q1 and Q1 impact on earnings; and clearly beyond the manufacturing and travel sectors as or if this not just expands, but becomes more enduring than the President or any of us would wish (the idea that it fades come warmer weather).  
 

Bottom-line: this may fade, antiviral drugs from that earlier Epidemic may show some efficacy (though I'm concerned that we're not hearing that to the degree we were a week ago), and progress towards a vaccine will eventually be seen, but even though this is not 1918, none of this evolves rapidly enough with regard to containment; and the global nature of flight and society isn't helping.  

And on top of it you have the uptrend we looked for early in 2020, with an eye for just pullbacks within context of the overall trend lasting into late in the year or beyond (mentioned in the main video tonight); but with a huge caveat; to achieve that I'm afraid we need to be proven overly concerned about the global prospects for eradicating or at least containing WuFlu.  

Simply put: if my concerns (expressed recently and again tonight) aren't excessive, than fairly soon the market has a problem, with for sure, more focus on domestic-centric stocks, but that may prove insufficient.    

Meanwhile, for markets at new highs... well: 'And the Band Plays On'.  So if you really want to dig into the weeds of this, contemplate how Beijing on Thursday announced they're putting the head of 'Biochemical weapons defense' (a lady who is a Major General) in-charge of Wuhan's fighting of the pathogen. I leave it to you to ponder any implications.    

While we certainly welcome helpful monetary policy or ignore topics such as the nonsense about whether China can buy all the goods agreed to or if the US can even produce that much (ignored because the US isn't that concerned as everything is changed by this), or observe the significance of how different political candidates would be received by markets; I know that's not really what matters right now. What matters is stopping WuFlu.

You're going to hear that there's infighting with the Sanders campaign or AOC's participation (he's not as radical as she wants, but radical enough to be a worry to the market as Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein suggested), or details about Beijing getting its act together reporting Epidemic statistics.  

Most of that is of little relevance (and I'm being generous) for now; with a serious Epidemic that threatens to breakout into Pandemic status as I've unfortunately suggested was probably not because I'm a doctor (I surely am not); but because I'm not blind to what's going on or oblivious to the steps taken that appear to be .. sadly .. too little possibly too late. So that matters to the markets, and since most of us (even if we got the seasonal regular flu or the new one) will be around for the aftermath and politics as well incidentally, it does matter how we handle markets and money; and that's possibly going to be an increasing challenge in the weeks ahead.  

Aside the 'clarification' about reporting in China they made; the biggest of all stories is that little factory (not in Wuhan either) that went back to work with 200 employees. One got ill and was tested and confirmed with the virus. The entire factory staff is now quarantined in the factory (a bit less comfy than those on the cruise ship from hell), and that's a sample of risk we'd talked about once China told people to go to work 'as if' things were lots better. We wish that they were, but doing so made it worse. They are (we realize) between a rock and a hard place. They need production and the people need jobs, but they also need life and reasonable health 'odds'.

So yes it about odds, and the odds slipped because the 'band stopped a bit, then played-on', then stopped to reflect (now); but the iceberg might already have been hit; 'Patient Zero' (as in the earlier Epidemic, there was an Air Canada Flight Attendant believed to have been Patient Zero spreading it globally). Patient Zero well behind now (whether or not in the Seafood Market, more closely related to the etiology of that virus recalling the proximity of the Wuhan Level 3 Biolab and its military affiliation).. so it is not our task to ascertain whether China unintentionally unleashed this, or some worker sold lab-animals to street vendors... a story I heard from a Chinese couple at my Money Show seminar the other day.  

 It is our responsibility to assess the implications for investors to a degree; and I guess I've tried to share a bit of journalism these recent weeks as I did a year ago with respect to the 'truth' as I saw it behind the Boeing 737 Max fiasco (structural design requiring anti-stall software; not merely the nevertheless defective software alone), especially when I think that what I see is not so much anything hidden from mainstream media, but more so information they're generally too timid to consider 'Breaking News'. Plus we have had some input and perused sources that can't be assured as to the accuracy, but within reason, I have tended to share. Hope is fine, but it's not a strategy. And that's what worried me this week.