Better balance was the Fed perspective today, as they didn't cut rates. They talked of job gains moderating, which obscures real softening in consumption in lower-to-middle class households.

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So, the groundwork is laid for a 'cut', perhaps September, but the language in a sense was minimal in terms of acknowledging consumer slippage or 'credit card' borrowing, delinquencies and so on. They stuck on the 'inflation' theme, rather than expressing worry about the state of the economy. Hard to tell if the avoidance of such discussion is 'spin' or trying to be neutral on the topic.

So focusing on both sides of their mandate was important, and frankly that's a monetary variation of what I've termed a bifurcated picture in so many aspects of American life and finance basically throughout this year and a bit before. Of course on the one hand that's why the focus on big-cap stocks, and it's also a contributing factor to why we didn't think they'd crash stocks, given a majority of smaller stocks (and average big stocks) were never advanced very much.

The FOMC statement was 'heavily peppered' with rate talk, rather than actual economic discussions, however, I think by phrasing, so they moved to neutral. I think that matters, since they have on-balance leaned hawkishly previously. If their policy is neutral, then that implies contemplated near-term Fed cuts. We think if the Fed waits too long, they will be too late and dealing with sloppier or even pressured economic scenarios. They are more worried about inflation.

Events in the Middle East and Ukraine took Oil about $3/bbl higher and very much is pending.

Market X-ray: 

Rates were essentially unchanged in the wake of Fed decisions to stand-pat. The Fed is setting the stage for a coming rate cut. The months ahead of a Fed rate cut are 'usually' strong in markets, but it's August and the traditional 'dog days', so, we'll see. Plus, you have real geopolitical concern.

Remember we have a government that loves to overspend, and the Fed that tends to keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation. At this point it risks error to not reflect more on easing restrictive backdrops.

Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) results after the close Thursday, BigBear too. 

What a wild session at the tail-end! No 'trench warfare' after the Fed decided not to move, but after the Powell News Conference it got feisty. Then, after a flailing up-down-up finale, you got META beating numbers to rising 30+ points while Qualcomm (a SoundHound partner) jumping, as did retailer Carvana, thus suggesting lots of people buying used cars (with what quality? hah).

Quite the earnings parade, but none of these were consumer mainstream like restaurants or such. Just wild, Advanced Micro Devices up 6 but ARM down 12 (and tumbling). Of course, Oil held strength per drawdowns noted last night, and war jitters.

Everyone primarily was talking about our long-held (pick of the year for 2018 or 2019 since 16-17) and some partial swings over 200 as well as buying back under 80) for AMD as setting the tone for semiconductors and particularly AI, and that’s very important for market 'tone' now, and for us in associated ‘verticals’ as well (to wit: application software stocks). 

SoundHound is a direct vertical (also introduced yesterday in Citroen plus in Alfa Romeo cars), while learning BigBear.ai is advancing with their security screening trial in Melbourne Airport (Australia not Florida). We’re amazed to hear nothing about TSA, Delta or border recently, but BBAI has a ‘letter’ (no Conference Call) Quarterly Report tomorrow. I don't expect much, do suspect the failure of Virgin Orbital will still weigh a bit on results, but that’s behind and Amazon, airlines, ports and significant Army and Navy contracts 'ought to' be unfolding soon...we would think. We remain critical of lack of transparency.

A lot of stocks priced a rate cut in, hence why it’s impressive that they edged higher anyway ahead of the FOMC decision. AI stocks like SOUN and BBAI caught decent bids, while ONDS is up on another Coast Guard ‘port’ ‘drone monitoring’ contract.

Bottom-line: 

Looked for the Fed to not rock the boat, which expects to reach port (friendlier monetary policy), probably with a September rate cut, which is debatable whether that's too late .. not broadly...but for some consumer areas.

Pricing levels remain high for many big-cap techs, so regardless of volatility in either direction, we're heading into what looks like anything other than 'boring' in August, with geopolitical, financial, and even political changes if not border upheavals, in the mix. 

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