Definitive moves ahead of Jackson Hole are absent, as action should be the case given a wide confluence of opinions about what's ahead. S&P fairly stable for the moment, wavering very little and generally alright, but we know how 'bolts from the blue' (in this case the Fed) can return volatility in a flash if you don't get dovish hints about 'data-dependency' and so on tomorrow. 

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We have a tough road ahead for the next couple months, and that's notably a prospect regardless of any possible rally 'after' the Fed comments and even a pre-Labor Day rally. I've already discussed the possibility of a pre-holiday rally that can't be sustained afterwards, and we'll just have to evaluate more later. 

What did matter more than the Fed today, was a flip-flop of stories regarding the Iran Nuclear Deal, first reports saying disagreements were smoothed and then later stories suggested the US presented an inspection demand to Tehran, that apparently the Iranians objected too.

There should be no deal done most especially without frequent nuclear facility inspections, hard to imagine that wasn't a non-negotiable demand before now and if it wasn't, well, that smells of a canine 'appeasing' tone by negotiators. 

I also believe we could find an unusual conclusion to this, because Europe is so hungry for fuel, but the USA is not (if we allow our energy independence). I suspect you could get (if Iran agrees to inspections as demanded) a 'deal' that is welcomed by the White House, and then rejected by the U.S. Congress. At the same time most of Europe would be soft (due to need) and go for the deal and ratify it. So a deal for Europe, but not with us, and actually that's realistic.

Of course the California mandate for 35% of vehicles to emit 'zero' emissions is a tall order, probably not feasible (can Sacramento force people to buy EV's .. I guess they can refuse to register/renew ICE-powered cars, but how do you enforce that?). (Of course California is both a leader and almost authoritarian at times, especially when it comes to State taxes or dubious empathy claims.)

Furthermore, I lean towards certain supply-chain issues taking several years to resolve, with companies not being entirely transparent on their progress to 're-shoring' or moving production 'out of China' in many instances. Example is Apple (AAPL), not mentioning much about shifting some iPhone production to India. That's fine, but although we knew they were 'evaluating' doing so, it wasn't too clear that they would be prepared this quickly. Fine, but not transparent. And I do think iPhone 14 sells well in China, since they were coping with COVID for a majority of the current model year, thus there should be pent-up demand.

I do believe iPhone 14 will emphasize the 'Pro Max' model, and that Apple is geared-up to produce a higher proportion of (of course) the flagship model. It will sell well in the USA, but might be a bit slower in the EU due to far deeper recession than they really acknowledge. But that's also part of why the Euro is below parity to the Dollar, which is something unseen in modern history. I'll note this makes Europe more affordable for U.S. travelers, but now few desire going to Europe (myself included) due to weather extremes and airport chaos. Of course absurdly expensive hotels largely offset the currency advantage.

In-sum: 

Oil and Iran were far bigger factors for markets in this 'on-hold' day of small movements, than ongoing media reports about student loans, while those were important to any of you (or your kids) still stuck with obligations.

Interest rates are important, but not quite as elevated in terms of control as all the Fed guys and gals will contend, including former 'dove now hawk' Kaskari or a couple that seem on the fence (you might even include a data-dependent Chairman Powell). We need to see a recognition that flight-capital, the Dollar stamina, or Oil's influence (as well as wages) that are somewhat independent of formal Fed actions and influence. 

Incidentally, 'new' military aid package to Ukraine and Russia did strike a train station with a missile, but no mass Independence Day attack on Kviv (so far).

Peak inflation is not peak Fed is the general thinking, but even without a pivot, you might see hints (that's what this week is about) of forward policy. I say the seasonal pressures, which are usually soft in September and/or October, still loom. 

Domestically, the Jackson Hole conference is all-important. Globally, oil as well as wobbly economic conditions are more important. Many debating of course the Fed, but also the soft behavior of semiconductors, with concern that lower demand (like for video games or PC's) will restrain such stocks for now.

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