A heavy tape - was interrupted by a modestly soft 'Beige (Tan) Book' report, while the latest threats from Iran suppressed that... however it does imply the Fed has reason to be nervous about waiting too long to ease off tighter policy.

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The 'tension on the tape' persists, and this was a 'usual suspects' alternating shuffle. I

As to Israel, I have thought (and continue to view) this post huge-interception of devil missiles from Iran as time for the IDF (or for that mater the U.S. Navy and RAF too) to replenish their supplies and armaments in preparation for the next phase of this regional war, which has already begun (hence my term that talked of difficulty in putting 'the Genie back in the bottle').

Remember Iran in a sense has a reason to stall further open warfare; that's of course their nuclear weapons development. Some observers think they are in position of enough materials to make about a dozen nuclear weapons; but of course we don't actually know. We do think 'if' there's a reprisal, Israel should first move against the 'drone factors' and/or Iranian Navy or Oil installations; a reason why Tehran today was heavy on responding on even a 'slight' reprisal.

Market X-ray: 

You can't get a sustainable S&P upside move in this climate; but you can get further downside effort, especially if war heats up even more.

The upside situation has to be isolated for particular stocks that benefit in this environment, and have good earnings. A number of major stocks report soon.

Today the tech sector was down; especially Semiconductors. Including slight erosion in speculative small-caps is necessary, as most already seriously hit or repressed are either boring, or have high short-interest lying in the wings for a potential 'squeeze', but not until something gets going (or specific news).

Opinion: 

If anyone wonders my view on Iran's oppressive regime; aside the ongoing war with Israel, and straight-forward and I'll be glad to state it. Iran's Islamic Republic supports extreme savagery, especially against women, and gays, but anyone they disapprove of, via Sharia Law. It needs to end, they're stuck in ancient times and were doing fine overall before being hijacked by a handful of radicals, including the ayatollahs who flew in from France.

The French let them leave (sure); but the Iranian Army (not just the Shah at the time) tried and failed to intercept the inbound aircraft. Awful the Iranian people get blamed for what the Islamic Republic (who hijacked their nation) and groups like Hamas and Hezbollah enable. This is not over, regardless of a quasi-ceasefire in Gaza. Unless there's a 'surprise', Israel may choose not to retaliate against Tehran until after Passover, so close to month's-end. But if today's attack from Hezbollah is a preview; response may not wait so long. In terms of stock markets, that leaves 'tension on the tape' for the time being.

Bottom-line: 

There's a remaining open gap (February) in S&P just shy of the 5000 level. Of course it's no big deal to anticipate that to be filled 'at minimum' as a part of this overall downside continuation pattern; so it's a goal for now.

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