Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 16

Pressures phasing Powell - poise prices to press higher. Meanwhile, if there is persistent pressure being felt over at the White House, likely it is from companies feeling the pain of the continued trade uncertainty; although that front has had supportive 'tweets' and comments needed, to in-essence keep the faith alive regarding forthcoming progress.  

  

Of course both Fed and trade challenges can or should be overcome; but it seems the stock market has already discounted that, by forecast 'probable' thrusts to new S&P highs (not quite there but pending); so it might mean a period of consolidation (at minimum) once we get these necessary achievements behind.

So sure, there are variables as to how it all gets handled; essentially in a slightly challenging period that just happens to coincide with my flight returning me to the U.S., which 2 out of the last 3 trips; preceded S&P shakeouts (or deeper declines). Now of course I'm leveraging the joke on that aspect; because it happens to precede an often-vulnerable bit of time for markets. 

As that's something roundly ignored thus far, since most expect 'relief' (and in a sense we have relief now; hence the discounting aspect that I just referred to); although few will complain if the S&P works higher in the wake of a 'trade deal' (more pertinent than any Fed action here).

In this case I suspected markets hold together not because I'm merely abroad, of course; but because of pending achievements, both in the trade and monetary realm, for which the S&P was awaiting, as many (truly amazing on-top of Quantitative analysts who should know better when it comes to rotation into value/growth kicking-in a bit) bears kept reasserting their negativity. They're still doing so; an S&P boon.  

By the way; perhaps among the most overlooked (potentially market impacting development) was the House Committee asking Amazon, Apple, and Facebook to turn over documents in the antitrust probe(s). Now I don't disagree breakups can be negative or sometimes positive. Parts can be worth more than the whole; or at times the opposite. 

Notable about antitrust over-enthusiasm: I remarked after chatting on environmental and corporatism trends (the good and bad aspects) with my Doctorate-studying cousin in Berlin. He pointed-out the once-larger French and German Maglev (magnetic levitation) train manufacturers were not permitted to merge. In a global competition with China, that single concern allowed Chinese to take European technology and leap ahead in terms of production and deployment (there are a couple lines operating in China whereas all of this has been delayed in Europe). Of course this doesn't apply across lines where domestic-centric business is seriously harmed for the small guys by huge conglomerates.   

Daily action has priced in most of the optimism (if that's appropriate) related to dovish monetary policy; somewhat has discounted favorable anticipation of a trade deal (interim more likely than final it seems), and is in proximity to try to nominally make new S&P highs any time now. 

Trade comments and inferences continue suggesting that Trump and Xi both want to get something done. In a world of ridiculous interest rates, that won't see higher valuation style multiples if yields firm for a period of time incidentally, unless you really start to see at least some prospects of economic strength; it's all dicey. Hence multiple viewpoint assessments are heard from some of the largest institutions, that often are of an almost single mindset when it comes to financial trends.    

 

Meanwhile,you have weighted portfolios that have scrambled quite a lot to diversify into valuation and growth; not just momentum; and that just happens to be what a bullish case requires, to persist longer. As a member emailed me, it's really extraordinary how many hedgers (or hedge funds) missed this move; and even the ones before it.  

 

  

 

Now we're extended; there will be lukewarm celebration for new highs; for the S&P at least, and trepidation continues. That can be interpreted favorably (as worry-wall climbing) but not on any really perennial basis. For now though, barring some negative surprises with China, we'd be thinking the worry-wall is slightly insurmountable on a daily basis; and that means we hold together ahead of the FOMC Meeting which just happens to occur immediately upon my return to the U.S.  

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