E Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 11

The alternating thrashing around how the 'China Shoppe' Phase 1 sorts out, or debates about pressures to forestall making a deal, surely once again dominated Friday's trading. So once again we're 'veterans', assessing a series of too-and-fro shuffles related to 'matador versus the Bulls' contest, in a sense. While this persists, as market traders or rumor-mongers make more of rampant skepticism regarding the trade progress than is warranted, little changes. Perhaps they're trading it.  

    

It took Peter Navarro coming forth Friday morning to dispel infighting talk (regarding his purported pressures on the President 'not to deal'). Navarro said 'only Trump' can remove Tariffs and said the propaganda (whether in the Chinese press or U.S. media) is just negotiating for the White House in public; as he doubled-down on denying the trade delay reports that were out there. China and the U.S. are moving forward. 

It might be notable that China's Top Trade Negotiator said "we want Trump to get re-elected", because he basically says what it is. He told audience members at Credit Suisse's China Investment Shenzhen Conference, that "we want Trump to be re-elected; we would be glad to see that happen". He's the elder statesman of China's trade diplomacy circle, so that does give a hint of Beijng's policy-making stance currently. 

  

His remark that 'President Trump's daily Twitter posts' broadcast every impulse Trump has, both delighting and peeving his 67 million followers on Twitter, making him 'easy to read' so 'the best choice in an opponent for negotiations". I don't think that means pushover; but rather clarity in knowing what will fly and what won't. I question this a bit, knowing that Trump will hold-out for as much as possible; then compromise. That's his style, they know it too, and it's o.k... everyone can feel face-saved, and that matters especially to Chinese (and to narcissists as well). I'm not interested so much in Trump's frail personality; but in outcomes. 

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Gary Anderson 11 months ago Contributor's comment

Trump could compromise. But he will get little. The hardliners like Navarro and Bannon and Gaffney and Pompeo will likely feel betrayed. They all want a cold war with China, a nation that doesn't want to fight a cold war but will if necessary. The direction towards a cold war should be unsettling.