E Market Briefing For Monday, May 25

Executive summary:

  • Herd Immunity apparently is the quasi-official goal; with the President stating if there's a 2nd wave, he won't shut the Country;
  • Increasingly, the fate of our economy hinges on medical (main video addresses this particularly);
  • Keeping the economy going will be a challenge if big outbreaks occur; but we understand time is running out basically (we gave it 2-3 months) not to get everyone back to work that possibly can, so here we are;
  • Should this fail, as many small businesses will attempt to restart; there will be a divisive situation in commerce, without precedent of course; but also with backlash against what will be viewed as extreme corporatism;
  • An early hint of this may be the 'independent' family restaurants open for this holiday weekend; while many major upscale chains, are not;
  •  Darden and a few others are reopen some locations (Seasons 52 is a good example opening now at least near me), but like the challenge of trying to visit an Apple Store (due to coffee spillage destroying my MacBook Pro), it's nowhere near normal, nor will it be soon;
  • So we all stay on tenterhooks to see how this goes; and again the fate of markets and perhaps humanity falls largely on medical science, not a perspective of various approaches that are often too political;
  • The irony, given the incredible sums thrown at 'research' now; tend to evidence that this really is (or must be) a nonpartisan issue for all.

'Herd immunity' - essentially seems to be an attempted solution (it's really not so political as what alternative is there; as you can't enforce quarantine at this point, as many are finding out, regardless of whether that would help; and we've simply bought-time for the medical establish to better prepare to deal with Covid-19; and that's really all the earlier shutdowns intended. So, much of the Country is 'opening up' (albeit slightly grudgingly in some areas) in ways that hasn't worked well in other nations that tried it, 'unless' the few who did were extremely disciplined in the process.  

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Chee Hin Teh 1 month ago Member's comment

Many thanks. Well Said. James