What defines a strong economy is probably going to be this weekend's debate. I culled-out the areas of 'Jobs gains & losses'; and think it's more noise than big progress. The financial media landscape is filled with comments about it; so in that spirit let's just say that lower interest rates 'normally' help business.

While the stock market was so depressed outside of a handful of mega-caps that led the S&P advance, there's no correlation that some try to make relative to a market 'falling off the cliff' once the Fed starts becoming 'friendlier'. In my view they are inclined to be friendlier in this coming Election Year; and inflation will not really be curtailed; just advancing at a slower pace in contracting sectors.

This weekend we're likely to hear multiple discussions of shifts that few knew had taken place so broadly at elite universities, which have gone from centers of excellence to institutions pushing political agendas. Regardless if anyone's thinking these were good intentions that morphed into a one-way ideologies, or turned these universities into places where goals are more political than a pursuit of enlightenment, we'll hear about social engineering vs. meritocracy.

These days the radicalism is far beyond what U.C. Berkeley was often viewed as; and perhaps in the long run it will help deter ultra-wokeism and promote centricity; but perhaps I'm being too optimistic to hope for that.

Market X-ray: Closer to 'game-on' for repressed stocks likely to survive and in some cases even thrive; although rock-and-roll alternating shuffles are likely in this continuing December wrap-up of tax-related moves.

And certainly there are geopolitical situations that can negatively or favorable impact markets next week, especially as relates to Oil, which I thought would be firming since it briefly broke below 70 / bbl. This may well continue as lots of unresolved matters relating to Oil persist. But I would not get negative on it; and I do envision 2024's first half being mostly a 70-90 range; above here.

And certainly there are geopolitical situations that can negatively or favorable impact markets next week, especially as relates to Oil, which I thought would be firming since it briefly broke below 70 / bbl.

This may well continue as lots of unresolved matters relating to Oil do persist. But I would not get negative on it; and I do envision the 2024 first half of 2024 being mostly a 70-90 range; above here. The Energy Complex is oversold.

The new week features a Fed Meeting; but the FOMC is unlikely to ruffle any feathers and stick to their message of being able to be hawkish if they desire to do so (basically remaining data-dependent). The Jobs Number boxes-in the Fed from cutting rates; but they'll probably just leave things alone.

Lending activity should perk up next year despite some thinking that banks will be tougher. Probably not. Anyway the Fed strategy away from QT but not yet QE evolves. More on this next week.

Bottom line: Satisfactory action leads to more optimism not for much higher S&P, but for holding together in the face of tax-selling largely behind; and not so much shuffling so far in December... it's normal to still allow for that; but it's also gratifying to see stabilization and realize that most stocks are coming-off a long-term oversold condition, and not overbought like biggest-cap stocks.

P.S. Friday night we learned that Ryan O'Neal passed away, at 82. Biggest grossing movie of 1970 (Love Story); reminds me of our youth, and how time flies.

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