Structural funding interpretations are presumed bullish for stocks, while the reality is (it matters but) it creates an odd mix of performance that has cyclical and value plays lag; with again 'Senior Index' focus.   

 Big buyback announcements like Microsoft and Target are examples of companies once again (as in 2018 before the projected breakdown) becoming the most significant marginal buyers of their own shares. It's one more example (funding being the other) of discarding assessment based on valuation, and the ability to use debt as buying currency.

Nevertheless, we believe there are favorable factors overriding these concerns, for the moment. That's particularly China wanting to deal; of course believing the window for a deal isn't closing because Trump is hinting at that; but because China needs the Agricultural products (not just soybeans, but their hog population was devastated by swine flu). I realize the mid-levels negotiations resumed today; and suspect they'll bear fruit and point towards a more significant gathering next month.

Alternatively, there are ongoing geopolitical concerns involving Iran, and the apparently incompetent ability of Saudi Arabia's military to defend their own oil facilities. Besides our early suspicion (based on reports of flyovers from Kuwait) that cruise missiles were fired from Southern Iran not Yemen, confirmation of that (noted by CBS last night but no source provided) enhances the prospect of retaliation by the Saudis perhaps (but that might further show their inattentive approach to weaponry). 

It's problematic and pending; so despite looking for the S&P to hold as we complete a Quarterly Expiration, we must be a bit cautious about it, since what we have is a delayed reaction (expected given Pompeo in Saudi now and headed to the UAE before any decision is finalized by the parties involved). And that's why Iran's Foreign Minister obfuscated further today, refusing to meet with President Trump at the UN even if offered next week (so he says); and threatening all-out war if the U.S., or the Saudis, retaliate. So we can't automatically dismiss this issue. 

Bottom line: a choppy but essentially neutral day. Certainly Quarterly Expiration is upon us; a post-Expiration pause would be acceptable (of course subject to news sensitivity regarding China and Iran more so vs financial structuring and liquidity injections); meanwhile buybacks are helping sustain the market for the moment.