Market Briefing For Friday, Jan. 19

An energetic overreach has many stocks and sectors ahead of analyst maximum targets for 2018; just as happened much earlier in 2017 as well. The intraday jitters are irresolute, as for the moment they're swinging on all the shifting prospects about a Government shutdown this weekend. 

Absolutely the impact of the tax reform (and capital repatriation); plus very constructive corporate moves such as Apple's; give the impression that skeptic assumptions that companies will solely use added funds for 'buybacks' (a dreaded form of reducing floating supply but for executive compensation in an indirect fashion) ...well..those assumptions were (thankfully) overblown.
 

Nevertheless, even with Apple raising the bar higher (with respect to how companies make decisions) very clearly, others are doing their share with bonuses and not merely buybacks. There seems to be a trend-in-motion to 'do the right thing' with respect to what the goals of these policies primarily are: growing America's economy; allowing our global leadership to persist; and aiding incomes for the Middle Class.

As the markets understood the basic importance of these policies we have believed essential for more than a year, buyers have capitulated and bears are rarely seen. That's pushed many even further to the long side of the ledger; and seasonal fund flows assist that a little (and may into Spring).

At the same time the market is increasingly keenly aware this is stretched. That's why I say it's been energetic; it's eclipsed targets; it can go higher in the fullness of time; but it is also long-in-the-tooth short-run. Hence lower thresholds to shakeout the market, periodically; but it won't stick as of yet. 

At least IBM broke its long losing streak and surpassed expectations. It's the first time revenues grew in 23 quarters; and affirms several points I've made, regarding not just its role in 'blockchain' technology; but their shift in focus to 'annuity-style' incomes (service rather than just one time sales) of software or hardware; and their increasing alliance with Apple for business Apps, which points Apple as well, more in a business direction.

You rarely hear about that; but when first announced a couple years ago I mentioned it would take time; but give it a couple years and you'll see the results that will help both IBM and Apple. I suspect you're starting to see that now. For sure the Company is giving conservative guidance (we have suspected that from many companies as a result of non-recurring charges associated with the tax changes); but that's fine and contributed to some on-the-news selling in after-hours trade today.

Texas Instruments (TXN) named Brian Crutcher as their next CEO; and earlier it was down a few bucks after nice rallies lately. That was typical in techs for Thursday; and in that sense is a market-performance norm for the session.
 

In sum: most of Thursday was erratic, with to-and-fro moves related sort of to talk of Government shutdown versus a brief continuing resolution that would avoid it. The comments from Senator Flake versus Politico are quite confusing, and make it unclear if a last minute (per usual) deal will occur. It was stated by Democrats that they have enough votes to block it; and that contributed to the final hour selloff; but impossible to say if that extends for that reason in the morning; or whether we awake to 'deal or no deal' (yet).

Regardless the market is rocking in the wake of a shake; and a rebound so typical of what comes after 'island reversals'. We knew they'd tried to bail it out; but also forewarned that while the first break isn't usually the real deal, the next break can be. Because of the political environment about current shutdown concerns, it's hard to say that today is the decline's resumption.

From a strictly technical perspective it can be viewed that way; but you just know they'll be a relief rally if the politicians put something together quickly.
 


 

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.