Industrial production declined -0.2% in June, and May was revised downward to unchanged. Even worse, manufacturing production declined -0.5% in June, and May was revised downward to -0.5% as well:

This corresponds to the sharp deterioration in the regional Fed new orders indexes, and the ISM manufacturing new orders index we have seen during that same time.

On a YoY basis, total production is up 4.2%, while manufacturing is up 3.6%. Compared with the last 40 years, and particularly the last 20, this remains pretty good growth:

The sharp deceleration in the past two months is not good, and two recessions - 1990 and 2007 - have started from these levels, but it has usually taken an even sharper downturn to coincide with the onset of a recession.

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